$Bull is coming: Reclaimed the 4-hour EMA50, but open interest continued to fall. The rebound looks more like short covering after deleveraging, not a push from new longs.
As of 11:01, spot was 0.05898, down 0.30% over 24 hours; open interest was down 2.90% over 24 hours and 1.22% over the past 3 hours, while the account long/short ratio rose to 1.41. The 1-hour candle closed at 0.05901, above the 4-hour EMA50 at around 0.05802.
Verifiable facts: price recovered, positions were closed, and the share of long accounts increased. Market inference: short covering and spot buying are driving the move, increasing the risk of chasing the rally. Yesterday's break below 0.05560 was triggered; 0.05500 was not broken on a completed 1-hour candle. There was no prior formal entry plan, so no entry was made.
Holding 0.05800 could lead to another test of 0.06000; a sustained break above it would put 0.06180 in view. A fall back below 0.05750 would weaken the recovery; if 0.05580 breaks, watch 0.05500. Data on position concentration and full unlock schedules is insufficient.
#牛来 #行情分析 #RiskManagement
As of 11:01, spot was 0.05898, down 0.30% over 24 hours; open interest was down 2.90% over 24 hours and 1.22% over the past 3 hours, while the account long/short ratio rose to 1.41. The 1-hour candle closed at 0.05901, above the 4-hour EMA50 at around 0.05802.
Verifiable facts: price recovered, positions were closed, and the share of long accounts increased. Market inference: short covering and spot buying are driving the move, increasing the risk of chasing the rally. Yesterday's break below 0.05560 was triggered; 0.05500 was not broken on a completed 1-hour candle. There was no prior formal entry plan, so no entry was made.
Holding 0.05800 could lead to another test of 0.06000; a sustained break above it would put 0.06180 in view. A fall back below 0.05750 would weaken the recovery; if 0.05580 breaks, watch 0.05500. Data on position concentration and full unlock schedules is insufficient.
#牛来 #行情分析 #RiskManagement