#zcash自9月以来首次跌破1000美元 The takeaway first: it’s likely to keep falling over the next two weeks
📊 Key data
· ZEC hit a low of 962.85 on 11/11 (-13.5%; -24.5% over 7 days), about 41% below its 9/26 high
· Binance quoted ZEC at 989.92 on 11/12 at 09:58 (-3.03%), while BTC was +0.06% and ETH was -0.21%
· About $35 million in ZEC long positions were liquidated, nearly 90% of roughly $40 million in total liquidations
· October CPI rose 0.4% (vs. 0.3% expected), while core CPI rose 0.3%; odds of a 25 bp rate hike in December are around 90%
· Grayscale’s Zcash ETF saw net outflows of about $15 million in November
🔍 Key tensions
First: It’s interest rates driving the decline. Hotter-than-expected CPI changed the question for December from “whether to hike” to “how much.” When rates rise, high-beta assets are the first to be sold. Over the same period, BTC fell 5.8%, ETH 11.6%, and ZEC 24.5%—same factor, different betas.
Second: The main issues are leverage and the ETF. Nearly 90% of liquidations were longs, and once 1,050 broke, cascading liquidations followed. Grayscale is funding the ecosystem while its product sees redemptions—the funding goes to developers, not to secondary-market buying.
Third: NU7 was a “sell the news” event. It activated on 11/6, reducing block times from 75s to 25s and making about 12,224 ZEC unspendable, but it creates no buying pressure. The sector fell 7%, while its leader dropped 13.5%—the leader dragged the sector down.
🧊 Three reality checks
1. 1,000 has turned from support into resistance. Below that are 962 and 930–900. Long liquidations haven’t slowed, so don’t assume a 41% drop makes it cheap.
2. The macro pressure hasn’t passed: core CPI has been 0.3% for three consecutive months. Waller said readings of ≥0.3% could warrant considering a 50 bp hike, while Deutsche Bank is betting on three consecutive hikes to 4.50%–4.75%.
3. Don’t mistake “institutional funding” for buying pressure. Funding ≠ buybacks, and spot BTC ETFs also saw net outflows over the same period.
💡 My take
This isn’t a discredited narrative. It’s a shakeout caused by three things piling up: interest rates, crowded leverage, and ETF redemptions. Meanwhile, the technology roadmap has actually moved forward.
What I’m doing: neither chasing shorts nor buying the dip. I’m waiting for three signals—long liquidations to ease, ETF outflows to stop, and ZEC to reclaim 1,000. This week, ZEC, AI tokens, and Anthropic’s valuation were all repriced around the same question: “How much will rates be raised in December?”
⚠️ Not investment advice. Data may be revised at any time.
Do you think ZEC can reclaim 1,000 this week, or will it test 900 first? Let’s chat in the comments 👇
Follow @阿Sue的加密日记 · Using data to expose crypto’s false signals
#Zcash #ZEC #PrivacyCoins #CPI #FederalReserve
📊 Key data
· ZEC hit a low of 962.85 on 11/11 (-13.5%; -24.5% over 7 days), about 41% below its 9/26 high
· Binance quoted ZEC at 989.92 on 11/12 at 09:58 (-3.03%), while BTC was +0.06% and ETH was -0.21%
· About $35 million in ZEC long positions were liquidated, nearly 90% of roughly $40 million in total liquidations
· October CPI rose 0.4% (vs. 0.3% expected), while core CPI rose 0.3%; odds of a 25 bp rate hike in December are around 90%
· Grayscale’s Zcash ETF saw net outflows of about $15 million in November
🔍 Key tensions
First: It’s interest rates driving the decline. Hotter-than-expected CPI changed the question for December from “whether to hike” to “how much.” When rates rise, high-beta assets are the first to be sold. Over the same period, BTC fell 5.8%, ETH 11.6%, and ZEC 24.5%—same factor, different betas.
Second: The main issues are leverage and the ETF. Nearly 90% of liquidations were longs, and once 1,050 broke, cascading liquidations followed. Grayscale is funding the ecosystem while its product sees redemptions—the funding goes to developers, not to secondary-market buying.
Third: NU7 was a “sell the news” event. It activated on 11/6, reducing block times from 75s to 25s and making about 12,224 ZEC unspendable, but it creates no buying pressure. The sector fell 7%, while its leader dropped 13.5%—the leader dragged the sector down.
🧊 Three reality checks
1. 1,000 has turned from support into resistance. Below that are 962 and 930–900. Long liquidations haven’t slowed, so don’t assume a 41% drop makes it cheap.
2. The macro pressure hasn’t passed: core CPI has been 0.3% for three consecutive months. Waller said readings of ≥0.3% could warrant considering a 50 bp hike, while Deutsche Bank is betting on three consecutive hikes to 4.50%–4.75%.
3. Don’t mistake “institutional funding” for buying pressure. Funding ≠ buybacks, and spot BTC ETFs also saw net outflows over the same period.
💡 My take
This isn’t a discredited narrative. It’s a shakeout caused by three things piling up: interest rates, crowded leverage, and ETF redemptions. Meanwhile, the technology roadmap has actually moved forward.
What I’m doing: neither chasing shorts nor buying the dip. I’m waiting for three signals—long liquidations to ease, ETF outflows to stop, and ZEC to reclaim 1,000. This week, ZEC, AI tokens, and Anthropic’s valuation were all repriced around the same question: “How much will rates be raised in December?”
⚠️ Not investment advice. Data may be revised at any time.
Do you think ZEC can reclaim 1,000 this week, or will it test 900 first? Let’s chat in the comments 👇
Follow @阿Sue的加密日记 · Using data to expose crypto’s false signals
#Zcash #ZEC #PrivacyCoins #CPI #FederalReserve