🔵 $ADA: 3 CYCLES, EACH TIME DOWN ABOUT 90%
2018–2020: peak 0.389 → bottom 0.0177 (3/2020), down 95% in 22 months
2021–2023: peak 3.10 (9/2021) → bottom 0.22 (6/2023), down 93% in 21 months
2024–2026: peak 1.33 (12/2024) → bottom 0.138 (6/2026), down 90% in 18 months
→ The current decline is now comparable to the previous 2 cycles in both depth and duration.
→ The difference: the 0.138 bottom is lower than the 2023 bottom. Lower highs, lower lows.
🔁 How ADA has formed bottoms in the past
Both previous times followed the same pattern: first bottom → strong 70–300% rebound → return to retest the bottom (sometimes dipping slightly below it) → months of sideways accumulation → only then a move into an uptrend.
This time: bottomed at 0.138 (Jun 2026) → rebounded to 0.282 (Oct 2026, +104%) → currently around 0.175.
The price is in the lower half of the 0.138–0.282 range, resembling the bottom-retest phase of previous cycles.
📍 Notable price levels
Below: 0.170, followed by 0.138–0.142 (cycle bottom)
Above: 0.200 → 0.247–0.265 → 0.282
Monthly close above 0.282: bottoming structure confirmed
Monthly close below 0.138: a new cycle low, with no nearby historical levels below
📊 On-chain fundamentals (epoch 667)
58% of circulating ADA is staked; on-chain treasury holds 1.42 billion ADA
TVL is around $50M, down 82% in one year; stablecoins total only around $61M
Leios (aiming to increase throughput by 10–65x) targets a Dec 2026 mainnet launch
No spot ADA ETF yet: Grayscale’s application was withdrawn on Aug 7
🌙 $NIGHT: 11 MONTHS, A CLEAR ACCUMULATION STRUCTURE
Dec 2025: launched, peaked at 0.119, then faced heavy selling from airdrop recipients
Jan–Jul 2026: gradually declined with each unlock; the Mar 30 mainnet launch was a “sell the news” event
Jul 20: bottomed at 0.0151, with volume about 12 times normal (down 87% from the peak)
Jul–Sep 2026: traded sideways between 0.017 and 0.025 on low volume
Sep 28: open contract deployment launched; price rose 170% to 0.053; on-chain transactions increased from 128/day to 47,714/day (Oct 26)
Oct 2026: corrected to 0.0353, right around 50% of the rally
Oct 21–Nov 10: consolidated between 0.036 and 0.045, with each low higher than the previous one
Nov 11: closed at 0.0475, breaking above the consolidation range on twice the 10-day average volume
This sequence looks quite similar to a classic Wyckoff accumulation pattern: sell-off → sideways trading → news-driven rally → 50% correction → re-accumulation.
📍 Notable price levels
0.045 area (the upper edge of the previous consolidation range)
0.050–0.053 resistance zone (October high)
Below 0.0353: this structure no longer holds
⏳ Supply
The final airdrop unlock is expected to end around early December. After that, new supply will mainly come from block rewards, starting when Cardano SPOs participate in block production (expected in Q4 2026, expanding in Q1 2027).
🔗 How are ADA and NIGHT related?
According to the Midnight whitepaper, SPOs are selected to produce blocks based on the amount of ADA delegated to them, and delegators also receive rewards. ADA does not need to move. This could be a second source of yield for ADA stakers, but the specific reward rate has not been announced.
NIGHT/ADA ratio: about 0.28 (Dec 2025) → 0.11 (Jul 2026) → about 0.27 currently. Since July, NIGHT has followed Midnight-specific news, not ADA or $BTC .
📌 SUMMARY
$ADA: is in the cycle-bottoming phase and may be retesting its low. Key levels to watch are 0.138 and 0.282.
$NIGHT: an early reversal structure has formed, but its price history is short and liquidity is much thinner.
❓ Are you following $ADA or $NIGHT more closely?
⚠️ This post is for informational purposes only and is based on historical price data; price patterns are not guaranteed to repeat. This is not investment advice.