Altcoins got slaughtered today, and the unrealized profit on my short has grown again—at 11:00, $BTC was about $73,744, up 0.2% over 24 hours; $ETH was about $2,056, down 0.1% (actual figures from CoinGecko). The broader market is grinding sideways above the 200-day moving average, but things have gone wrong for altcoins: Initia (INIT) is down 57% in a day, with the price now around $0.11. I found out why: at 06:18 UTC on November 10, Initia L1 halted for the second time. An attacker used leaked cloud credentials to forge withdrawals from five rollups, transferring about $3.27 million out of custodial accounts (reported by CoinMarketCap). The price action is even wilder: INIT was still at $0.13 on November 9, then doubled to $0.30 as the news spread, plunged back to $0.147 on November 11, and continued falling to $0.11 today. Two chain halts in a month—this is the kind of coin I treat as a warning sign and stay away from.
And it’s not just INIT: PEPE is down 15.1% in a day, ARB 8.7%, and ZEC 2.8%, continuing to slide below $1,000 (it only broke below that level yesterday). When the altcoin rotation fades, money doesn’t immediately flow back to the broader market—it hides first. That’s one of the reasons I’m still bearish.
Short position update #35: I opened the short on November 7 at 13:00, in the 75,800–76,100 range, with a 75,950 average entry. The current price is 73,744, down 2.90%; on 100x leverage, the remaining half has about +290% in unrealized profit on paper (it was +258% at 09:00). The half I added to the short (average entry 74,850) is up about +148% (it was +115% at 09:00). The stop-loss is 77,500, and I’ll admit I’m wrong if a 4-hour candle closes above 76,250; neither level has been hit. Target two remains 68,000. A rebound to 75,300–75,500 is still an area to add to the short. If price breaks below 71,500 and can’t reclaim it on a 4-hour close, I won’t chase the short; I’ll hold and wait for 68,000.
There are also 2,380 BTC options expiring today at 16:00, with a max pain of $74,500—just above the current price. I’m staying out for an hour on either side of expiry. Friday, November 13, is the big day: PPI and 33,902 options expiring (max pain: 77,000).
Are you holding any altcoins? When a coin gets cut in half in a day, do you buy the dip or steer clear? Let’s talk in the comments. (Prices: actual CoinGecko figures as of 11:00 Beijing time on November 12; chart shows the past 24 hours.)
And it’s not just INIT: PEPE is down 15.1% in a day, ARB 8.7%, and ZEC 2.8%, continuing to slide below $1,000 (it only broke below that level yesterday). When the altcoin rotation fades, money doesn’t immediately flow back to the broader market—it hides first. That’s one of the reasons I’m still bearish.
Short position update #35: I opened the short on November 7 at 13:00, in the 75,800–76,100 range, with a 75,950 average entry. The current price is 73,744, down 2.90%; on 100x leverage, the remaining half has about +290% in unrealized profit on paper (it was +258% at 09:00). The half I added to the short (average entry 74,850) is up about +148% (it was +115% at 09:00). The stop-loss is 77,500, and I’ll admit I’m wrong if a 4-hour candle closes above 76,250; neither level has been hit. Target two remains 68,000. A rebound to 75,300–75,500 is still an area to add to the short. If price breaks below 71,500 and can’t reclaim it on a 4-hour close, I won’t chase the short; I’ll hold and wait for 68,000.
There are also 2,380 BTC options expiring today at 16:00, with a max pain of $74,500—just above the current price. I’m staying out for an hour on either side of expiry. Friday, November 13, is the big day: PPI and 33,902 options expiring (max pain: 77,000).
Are you holding any altcoins? When a coin gets cut in half in a day, do you buy the dip or steer clear? Let’s talk in the comments. (Prices: actual CoinGecko figures as of 11:00 Beijing time on November 12; chart shows the past 24 hours.)
