The probability of a rate hike in December is 87%—this may be the most underestimated bearish factor in crypto lately.
After CPI came in hotter than expected, fed funds futures put the probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the December 8–9 meeting at 87.3%.
There’s another figure I find even more worrying: total stablecoin supply fell by about $14.2 billion over 30 days, its fastest contraction since June 2022. Money is leaving, not just rotating within the market.
$ETH has been hit the hardest: it’s now around 2,060, down more than 15% over the past 7 days—much weaker than $BTC at -8%. When liquidity tightens, funds usually flee higher-beta assets first.
My take:
I’m not rushing to buy the ETH dip until rate-hike expectations have been priced in and stablecoins start flowing back in. If I’m looking for a reversal signal, I’d trust a bottoming and recovery in stablecoin supply more than a candlestick chart.
Do you think once the rate hike happens, the bad news will be behind us—or is the downturn just beginning?
(Just my personal opinion, not investment advice)
After CPI came in hotter than expected, fed funds futures put the probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the December 8–9 meeting at 87.3%.
There’s another figure I find even more worrying: total stablecoin supply fell by about $14.2 billion over 30 days, its fastest contraction since June 2022. Money is leaving, not just rotating within the market.
$ETH has been hit the hardest: it’s now around 2,060, down more than 15% over the past 7 days—much weaker than $BTC at -8%. When liquidity tightens, funds usually flee higher-beta assets first.
My take:
I’m not rushing to buy the ETH dip until rate-hike expectations have been priced in and stablecoins start flowing back in. If I’m looking for a reversal signal, I’d trust a bottoming and recovery in stablecoin supply more than a candlestick chart.
Do you think once the rate hike happens, the bad news will be behind us—or is the downturn just beginning?
(Just my personal opinion, not investment advice)