Binance data, as of November 12 at 10:00.
BTC touched a high of 74,811 today, but has now fallen to around 73,700, giving back more than 1,100 points in one go.
Why is it falling? Just look at three things:
First, traders are reducing their positions, not adding to them. Total open interest across the market fell 2.25% in one day, which means people who were previously long are exiting—not that bears are aggressively selling.
Second, longs are still paying, but not much. The funding rate is 0.0061%, meaning longs are still paying a small fee to shorts. This shows bullish traders are still around, but they’re no longer as enthusiastic.
Third, the number of bulls and bears is about the same: 49.7% versus 50.3%. Almost perfectly split—neither side has the upper hand.
Put the three things together in one sentence: nobody is rushing to buy, and nobody is panic-selling. It’s just a sluggish decline.
Watch these three levels next:
74,800—price was turned back there today. If it can’t get above this level, any rebound is just a recovery.
76,090—the real dividing line. It only counts as the end of the decline if price gets above it.
72,727—the low of this move. If it breaks below, look toward 69,100.
My plan:
Short term: Don’t chase here. Consider shorting if price rebounds to 74,200–74,400, with a stop at 74,900 and a target of 73,200. If it breaks below that, look toward 72,730. If it drops straight below 73,209, wait for a bounce back to 73,350 before entering, with a stop at 73,900.
Medium to long term: No rush. Buy in batches if price falls to 71,600–72,600, with a stop at 70,900 and a first target of 76,090. If price doesn’t reach that zone, do nothing.
When would my view be wrong? If price gets above 76,090, all bearish ideas are invalidated.
This is technical analysis, not investment advice. Manage your position size yourself.