When markets are volatile, historical return tables can easily lead people to one conclusion: $BNB once dramatically outperformed $BTC and $ETH , so it should do the same going forward. The first part may be true; the second does not automatically follow.
Based on the UTC daily closing prices for Binance spot BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, and BNBUSDT on December 31, 2020, the three coins were priced at 28,923.63, 736.42, and 37.3588 USDT, respectively. Assuming an investment of 100 USDT in each coin at the time, and valuing them at spot prices of 73,676.15, 2,051.05, and 678.32 USDT, as read at 09:38 Beijing time on November 12, 2026, the results would be approximately 254.73, 278.52, and 1,815.69 USDT, respectively. The calculation takes just one line: 100 ÷ purchase price × valuation price.
BNB supporters would point out that, with the same starting point and investment, the gap is indeed remarkable. Skeptics also have a solid argument: choosing just one start date and one end date obscures the interim drawdowns, the difficulty of holding, and timing errors. BNB here is calculated continuously using the spot quantity of the identically named coin, with no adjustment for splits; any cross-chain migrations you may have made yourself, along with their costs, are not modeled. None of the three results deducts trading fees, slippage, or taxes, and the current price is not a guaranteed execution price.
The next time I compare coins by return multiples, I would rather first change the starting year and then see whether the order of the leaders holds steady. A historical backtest can only describe this particular path; it cannot replace a judgment about the future. Price volatility and trading costs may significantly change actual results, so assess the risks carefully.
Based on the UTC daily closing prices for Binance spot BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, and BNBUSDT on December 31, 2020, the three coins were priced at 28,923.63, 736.42, and 37.3588 USDT, respectively. Assuming an investment of 100 USDT in each coin at the time, and valuing them at spot prices of 73,676.15, 2,051.05, and 678.32 USDT, as read at 09:38 Beijing time on November 12, 2026, the results would be approximately 254.73, 278.52, and 1,815.69 USDT, respectively. The calculation takes just one line: 100 ÷ purchase price × valuation price.
BNB supporters would point out that, with the same starting point and investment, the gap is indeed remarkable. Skeptics also have a solid argument: choosing just one start date and one end date obscures the interim drawdowns, the difficulty of holding, and timing errors. BNB here is calculated continuously using the spot quantity of the identically named coin, with no adjustment for splits; any cross-chain migrations you may have made yourself, along with their costs, are not modeled. None of the three results deducts trading fees, slippage, or taxes, and the current price is not a guaranteed execution price.
The next time I compare coins by return multiples, I would rather first change the starting year and then see whether the order of the leaders holds steady. A historical backtest can only describe this particular path; it cannot replace a judgment about the future. Price volatility and trading costs may significantly change actual results, so assess the risks carefully.
