Bitcoin is heading for an unwanted record: two consecutive red years, for the first time in its 18-year history.
Key figures:
• 2025: −6.34% (Decrypt, Nov 11, 2026)
• 2026 so far: −15.65%, at around $73,850 as of Nov 10 (Decrypt; Blockonomi, Nov 11, 2026, CoinGecko data)
• To avoid a second red year, BTC needs to gain +18.5% to ~$87,500 before Dec 31 — 50 days left
• Combined over two years: ~−21%, far less severe than 2018 (−73.56%) and 2022 (−64.27%)
• From its peak of ~$126,000 (Oct 2025), BTC briefly fell more than 50% to below $58,000
What it means, in my view: every red year in Bitcoin's history has been followed by a green year — that pattern is now at risk of breaking. The nuance: on a yearly basis, this is “not that red” compared with 2018/2022; the brutal part was the journey along the way, with a drawdown of more than 50% from the peak. This is calendar-year statistics, not a prediction — 50 days is still enough to swing the story either way.
What I'm watching next: the $87,500 mark as the year-end decider, and whether BTC can get back above $75,700 (short-term holder cost basis). The nearest catalyst: US PPI on Friday at 20:30 WIB.
Do you think BTC will close 2026 above or below $87,500?
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
#Bitcoin #DataDrop $BTC
Key figures:
• 2025: −6.34% (Decrypt, Nov 11, 2026)
• 2026 so far: −15.65%, at around $73,850 as of Nov 10 (Decrypt; Blockonomi, Nov 11, 2026, CoinGecko data)
• To avoid a second red year, BTC needs to gain +18.5% to ~$87,500 before Dec 31 — 50 days left
• Combined over two years: ~−21%, far less severe than 2018 (−73.56%) and 2022 (−64.27%)
• From its peak of ~$126,000 (Oct 2025), BTC briefly fell more than 50% to below $58,000
What it means, in my view: every red year in Bitcoin's history has been followed by a green year — that pattern is now at risk of breaking. The nuance: on a yearly basis, this is “not that red” compared with 2018/2022; the brutal part was the journey along the way, with a drawdown of more than 50% from the peak. This is calendar-year statistics, not a prediction — 50 days is still enough to swing the story either way.
What I'm watching next: the $87,500 mark as the year-end decider, and whether BTC can get back above $75,700 (short-term holder cost basis). The nearest catalyst: US PPI on Friday at 20:30 WIB.
Do you think BTC will close 2026 above or below $87,500?
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
#Bitcoin #DataDrop $BTC