Rogue Bro’s Crypto + AI Morning Brief · 2026-11-12 (Thursday)

BTC 73,689, +0.25% over 24 hours; ETH 2,051, +0.17%.

① MSCI removes Strategy from U.S. indices

Takes effect after the November 30 close, marking the first implementation of MSCI’s new rules announced on October 15. First, it checks for substantive operating assets. Companies that fail this test are then screened against five financial ratios; failing four makes them ineligible. Existing index constituents are removed only after failing for two consecutive annual reporting periods.

→ Those holding MSTR may face mechanical selling pressure from index funds around the effective date. For those watching new treasury companies, start by checking how they fare on the five ratios.

② Nomura in talks to sell crypto subsidiary, seeking a buyer while pursuing a license

Laser Digital’s losses last year dragged Nomura’s entire European business into the red. Potential buyers it has approached include Marex. Meanwhile, it secured Japan’s first registration of its kind in nearly four years, and its U.S. trust bank also received preliminary OCC approval.

→ Getting a license doesn’t mean the business can make money. When institutions enter, assess market access and unit economics separately.

③ Variational opens mainnet: $1.5 billion in open interest against $450 billion in trading volume

Omni on Arbitrum has ended its roughly 20-month private testing period. Zero fees are a long-term policy, and the platform supports more than 550 markets. The 4500-to-15 ratio is 300x turnover—that’s market makers churning volume, not positions being held.

→ After open registration, watch to see whether points are still being awarded. Open interest after points stop is a better measure of real demand.

④ Google’s decision-making model: cheapest input, most expensive overall

Gemini Decision 1 supports five input types and a 256K-token context window. In its own tests, it scored 92.2% on JevBench, beating Jev’s 90.0%; it ranked ninth on the third-party Decision Index. Its input price of $0.10 per million tokens is the lowest, but completing 1 million tasks costs $345, compared with $156 for Jev and $103 for Drex Max.

→ Decision models cost money based on how many judgments they make. Compare the cost per million tasks, not the input price.

⑤ T-Head heads for a Hong Kong IPO: 7% reflects chips already shipped

Alibaba plans to spin off the business for a Hong Kong listing. As of April this year, cumulative shipments of its Zhenwu series had exceeded 560,000 cards. IDC data shows it held 7% of China’s data center AI accelerator card market in the first half of 2026, ranking second among domestic vendors. Huawei had 28%, while Nvidia still led with 34%.

→ Gauge domestic computing power by shipment share and mass-production timelines. The V900 won’t enter mass production until the first quarter of 2027.

In a nutshell: index rules are pushing crypto treasury companies out, established firms are selling their crypto businesses, and new protocols are buying volume with zero fees. It all comes down to the cost per unit.