U.S. spot BTC ETFs have seen net outflows for 5 consecutive trading days, narrowing to about $30.1 million on the 11th. Over the same period, the supply of major stablecoins fell by about $14.2 billion over 30 days. Institutional channels are still seeing redemptions, while on-exchange dollar balances are also shrinking, leaving BTC’s rebound above $74,000 more reliant on existing holders.
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🔥 Today’s 3 most important stories
1) BTC ETFs see net outflows for 5 consecutive days, with about $30.1 million on the 11th
Decrypt: On November 11, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw combined outflows of about $30.1 million, following about $95 million on the 10th and about $201 million on the 9th, marking 5 consecutive days of net outflows. Cointelegraph, citing SoSoValue: Outflows since the start of November total about $1.6 billion; on the 10th, IBIT saw about $78 million in outflows, marking its 8th consecutive day of redemptions.
Redemptions are narrowing, but flows remain net negative. BTC is around $74,100, up about 0.7% over 24 hours. If net outflows continue Thursday, it may keep trading sideways above $74,000.
2) Stablecoin supply down about $14.2 billion over 30 days
The Block, citing Glassnode: The supply of major stablecoins fell by about $14.2 billion over the past 30 days, bringing total supply below roughly $280 billion. Around June 2022, a similar 30-day decline came close to $30 billion. CryptoQuant: USDT’s market cap fell by about $6.6 billion in roughly 60 days.
Holders are redeeming their stablecoins for dollars and pulling funds out of the market, leaving fewer stablecoins available to buy crypto. Combined with ETF redemptions, this makes it harder for BTC and ETH to move higher.
3) Options markets raise the probability of BTC falling below $70,000 before Christmas to about 31%
The Block, citing Derive: The probability of settling below $70,000 at Christmas rose from about 15% to 31%, while the probability of rising above $80,000 fell from about 53% to 26%. Options trading on the platform totaled about $418 million last week, with puts accounting for about 55% of premiums.
Demand for downside protection is rising. If the $73,000–$74,000 range gives way, the next area to watch is closer to $70,000. A change in market pricing would require BTC to hold above and reclaim $75,000.
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⚡ Breaking news
▸ AI: Bloomberg reports that Anthropic’s IPO orders have reached several times the number of shares available, and banks are weighing whether to raise the $70–$78 price range.
▸ AI: Google has opened Gemini 4 Carbon to developers and Ultra subscribers, and previewed a multi-agent swarm.
▸ Crypto: Deutsche Bank’s digital asset custody service has launched for European institutions, supporting BTC, ETH, and several stablecoins.
▸ Crypto: OKXICE’s tokenized securities platform is set to open on November 23, with about 70 assets in its initial offering.
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👀 A few things to watch today
1) Final net flows for U.S. spot BTC ETFs on Thursday: A return to positive flows would help BTC stabilize above $74,000; further outflows would weaken the rebound.
2) October PPI on Friday at 21:30 Beijing time: A significantly higher-than-expected reading could push BTC toward $73,000–$72,000.
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📌 ETF redemptions are easing while stablecoin supply contracts, leaving BTC’s rebound to $74,000 short on fresh capital.
⚠️ Narrative summary; not investment advice