On a morning when fear was everywhere, the top gainer was a coin many people may never have heard of: AGT from Alaya AI.
In short: the broader market is still contracting, while money is flowing into small caps. But the one attracting the most attention has an unlock coming up.
First, let’s look at AGT. CoinGecko shows it roughly tripled in 24 hours, now trading around 0.075 after being near 0.023 a day ago. What really made me pause was the trading volume: about $160 million in 24 hours, dozens of times higher than the previous day. I went through the public information but couldn’t find any project announcement that could explain a rally this steep. The only thing I could find was the Season 17 points redemption, which opened on November 3—but the redemption itself also adds tokens to the market.
More importantly, there’s the unlock schedule. Third-party calendars show a small unlock of about 26.67 million tokens in the early hours of November 14 Beijing time, followed by another on November 16. DropsTab estimates the latter at about 160 million tokens, just over 3% of the total supply, though figures vary somewhat across sources. The lessons I’ve learned from getting burned over the years tell me that when a coin surges without any news and an unlock is approaching, people who chase it often end up holding the bag for someone else. I usually just watch and stay out, then reassess once the unlock is over and trading volume has died down, if the price is still holding up.
Now for the other side of the market. INIT is down more than 50% in 24 hours and is now around 0.128. After the chain was attacked and halted last week, a short squeeze first sent it up more than 100%, but yesterday it gave all those gains back. The team said about $3.27 million in assets had been transferred out. UNI is around 6.25, down nearly 7% in a day and about 20% in a week. There’s no bad news at the protocol level; the main factors are long liquidations and selling by large holders.
A quick word on the broader market. BTC is around 73,995, up 0.6% in 24 hours, and has been moving between 73,200 and 74,700 over the past day. It’s hovering near the 30-day daily-chart low of around 73,700, while the high is above 84,000. The resistance I’m watching is around 75,700, where Bitfinex estimates the short-term holder cost basis to be. If BTC can’t get back above that level, the rebound could easily be sold into by people looking to break even. Below that, the next level to watch is around Tuesday’s post-CPI low of 72,700. The flow picture hasn’t improved yet: U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of about $95 million on Tuesday, marking a fourth consecutive day of outflows. IBIT has seen redemptions for eight straight trading days, though the outflows are getting smaller.
ETH is around 2,060, down about 15% over seven days and much weaker than BTC. The 30-day low of 2,050 is right below, while the high is 2,497. SOL is around 83.6 and BNB around 681; both are only slightly up and are following BTC.
Sentiment-wise, the Fear and Greed Index has fallen from 29 to 28.
Today I’m mainly watching two things: first, whether BTC can reclaim 75,700; and second, options. Among the contracts on Deribit expiring between November 12 and 27, put trading volume is about 1.5 times call volume, suggesting people are buying downside protection. I’ll treat tonight’s U.S. jobless claims and tomorrow’s PPI as background information, and don’t plan to bet on a direction in advance.
I’ll stick to my usual approach: in a weak market, I stay away from both the biggest gainers and the biggest losers, keep my position size small, and wait for ETFs to show a sustained signal of inflows.
I’m curious what you’d do: if you came across a coin like AGT, with no news and a price that doubles in a day, would you chase it or wait until after the unlock to take another look?
The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk.