⚠️Risk warning: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile, so be sure to manage risk carefully.
Mars Finance reports: The latest data from Glassnode lays out Bitcoin’s current situation clearly: Bitcoin has fallen below the average cost basis of short-term holders, at $75,600, and is underperforming U.S. stocks. Meanwhile, capital continues to flow out. This is the main reason prices have remained under pressure recently.
Only 35% of short-term holders are currently in profit, while most short-term traders are selling at a loss. The funding picture is even worse: the total stablecoin supply has shrunk by $14.2 billion over the past 30 days, its fastest contraction since June 2022. Spot ETFs have seen net outflows for 20 consecutive trading days, totaling $1.6 billion. Coinbase continues to trade at a discount, indicating little willingness among sidelined investors to enter the market—no one is eager to buy at a premium. On top of that, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and the bond market is betting on further rate hikes. In a high-interest-rate environment, it’s naturally difficult for a risk asset like Bitcoin to gain strength.
But there’s no need to be entirely pessimistic—there are a few positive signals in the market. This latest drop has already flushed out most of the leveraged longs clustered nearby, with the major liquidation zone below at $59,500–$62,600. Also, since the sharp drop on November 5, buy orders have consistently outnumbered sell orders within 5% of the order books on Binance and Coinbase. And wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC and 1,000–10,000 BTC quietly began buying the dip last week.
So when might the market recover? It depends on two key levels. If the price can reclaim and hold above $75,600, the previous uptrend may resume. If it closes below $73,000, a prolonged bottoming process is likely to begin. And if it breaks below the key low of $58,500, the uptrend that began in August will be decisively broken, opening the door to further declines.
Keep a close eye on these key points: First, stablecoins need to stop steadily shrinking, and ETFs need to shift from outflows to net inflows—these are the essential fuel signals for a market recovery. Second, whether the $73,000 support level holds. Third, Treasury yields and Fed officials’ remarks—the macro interest-rate outlook is the main force steering the market.
At this stage, it’s not wise to blindly go all in on dip-buying. Whales adding to their holdings is a signal of long-term positioning, not a guarantee of an immediate rebound. Treat any bounce primarily as a relief rally, and consider increasing your position only after both fund flows and key price levels stabilize.
Do you think the $73,000 support level will hold? Share your thoughts in the comments!
