Ba Fang | BTC Morning Market Analysis 11.12
Data timestamp: 11.12, 08:25 Beijing time
U.S. stocks really did rise last night, and BTC followed—but couldn’t keep up.
📍 Overnight action
During the 22:00 hour, BTC first dipped to 73,388. After the U.S. market opened, it climbed, reaching 74,803 during the 05:00 hour—right at the daily EMA200 (74,731).
Then it fell steadily from 06:00 to 07:00, hitting a low of 73,481. It’s now $BTC 74,100, up 0.67% over 24 hours.
During the 06:00 hour, aggressive contract selling totaled about $113 million, versus around $83 million in aggressive buying—a clear sign of selling pressure.
🇺🇸 U.S. stocks
According to foreign media reports, the Nasdaq closed up 1.60%, the S&P 500 gained 1.31%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 5.7%.
But NVIDIA fell more than 8% after hours, following reports that its board was considering replacing Jensen Huang. BTC also started moving lower after the U.S. market closed.
👀 Sentiment
The long-short ratio fell from 2.95 at 23:00 to 2.77 now, briefly touching 2.69 at 06:00. The funding rate is 0.0062%—not overheated.
The spot ETF data for 11.11 is not yet complete. The figures released so far show 39.1 million in outflows from GBTC.
📊 Daily chart
RSI is 34.4, the 4-hour RSI is 43.1, and the MACD histogram is -630, still below the zero line. AHR999 is 0.39, in the undervalued zone.
$ETH 2,063 surged to 2,104 overnight before pulling back. During the 07:00 hour, it hit a low of 2,035.71, almost touching the lower Bollinger Band (2,034.70). Daily RSI is 29.7.
$SOL 83.75 has a daily RSI of 23.3, making it the weakest of the three.
🎯 Key levels today
Resistance: 74,731 (daily EMA200) / 74,803 (overnight high)
Support: 73,481 (this morning’s low) / 73,388 / 73,150 (daily MA200)
Outlook: Range-bound with a bearish bias.
Ba Fang’s view: BTC has tested the EMA200 several times but hasn’t managed to hold above it. Today, I’ll first be watching whether 73,481 holds. If it does, BTC may continue moving within the range; for a genuine shift to strength, it needs to break above 74,803 on increased volume.
Do you think BTC will reach 74,800 first today, or test the MA200 at 73,150 first?
(Personal opinion; not investment advice)
#BTC #行情分析 #U.S.Stocks
Data timestamp: 11.12, 08:25 Beijing time
U.S. stocks really did rise last night, and BTC followed—but couldn’t keep up.
📍 Overnight action
During the 22:00 hour, BTC first dipped to 73,388. After the U.S. market opened, it climbed, reaching 74,803 during the 05:00 hour—right at the daily EMA200 (74,731).
Then it fell steadily from 06:00 to 07:00, hitting a low of 73,481. It’s now $BTC 74,100, up 0.67% over 24 hours.
During the 06:00 hour, aggressive contract selling totaled about $113 million, versus around $83 million in aggressive buying—a clear sign of selling pressure.
🇺🇸 U.S. stocks
According to foreign media reports, the Nasdaq closed up 1.60%, the S&P 500 gained 1.31%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 5.7%.
But NVIDIA fell more than 8% after hours, following reports that its board was considering replacing Jensen Huang. BTC also started moving lower after the U.S. market closed.
👀 Sentiment
The long-short ratio fell from 2.95 at 23:00 to 2.77 now, briefly touching 2.69 at 06:00. The funding rate is 0.0062%—not overheated.
The spot ETF data for 11.11 is not yet complete. The figures released so far show 39.1 million in outflows from GBTC.
📊 Daily chart
RSI is 34.4, the 4-hour RSI is 43.1, and the MACD histogram is -630, still below the zero line. AHR999 is 0.39, in the undervalued zone.
$ETH 2,063 surged to 2,104 overnight before pulling back. During the 07:00 hour, it hit a low of 2,035.71, almost touching the lower Bollinger Band (2,034.70). Daily RSI is 29.7.
$SOL 83.75 has a daily RSI of 23.3, making it the weakest of the three.
🎯 Key levels today
Resistance: 74,731 (daily EMA200) / 74,803 (overnight high)
Support: 73,481 (this morning’s low) / 73,388 / 73,150 (daily MA200)
Outlook: Range-bound with a bearish bias.
Ba Fang’s view: BTC has tested the EMA200 several times but hasn’t managed to hold above it. Today, I’ll first be watching whether 73,481 holds. If it does, BTC may continue moving within the range; for a genuine shift to strength, it needs to break above 74,803 on increased volume.
Do you think BTC will reach 74,800 first today, or test the MA200 at 73,150 first?
(Personal opinion; not investment advice)
#BTC #行情分析 #U.S.Stocks