Rebounded above 74,811, then pulled back
Key takeaway
Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin is up 0.41% at 73,984. It peaked at 74,811.45 last night, 57 points above the 74,753.8 threshold I wrote about yesterday. It touched that level, then pulled back. It’s now once again below the 73,995 threshold. The low was 73,209.12; it didn’t retest the 72,727 low.
Over the same period, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 7%, the Nasdaq rose 2%, and CoreWeave gained over 25%. Bitcoin rose 0.4%. U.S. stocks showed the way, but Bitcoin didn’t follow.
Fear and Greed Index: 28, down from 29 yesterday.
Review of yesterday’s scenarios
Of yesterday’s three scenarios, Scenario 3—the one with a 25% probability—called for a rebound above 73,995, two consecutive 4-hour closes above that level, and a test of 74,473 to 74,754. In reality, the price rose above 73,995 and peaked at 74,811 last night, touching both the lower and upper bounds of the 74,754 threshold. The projected move played out, but the price couldn’t hold there and has now fallen back below 73,995.
Scenario 1’s 40% case (rejected from 73,933–73,994, closing between 73,000 and 73,800) didn’t play out; yesterday’s close was 74,015.19.
The invalidation level for the rebound short in the trade plan was a 1H close above 74,100. That was triggered last night. Positions that exited at that level avoided the subsequent move up to 74,811.
Neither of the two levels we were waiting for in swing trading—a daily close below 72,727 or two consecutive 4H closes above 76,246—was triggered. No action was the right call.
Macro: the AI trade turned first
U.S. stocks surged during yesterday’s session, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 7%. After-hours sentiment shifted: prediction markets pushed the odds of Jensen Huang being removed to 88%, and Nvidia fell as much as 9% after hours. Same AI trade, two opposite directions during and after the session. To see where crypto prices go today, first watch how U.S. stocks price this tonight.
Bitcoin has its own new development: MSCI confirmed it will remove Strategy from its U.S. indexes, effective November 30. Strategy has been the biggest Bitcoin buyer over the past few years. Index funds hold its shares because it is part of the index, and that passive ownership will have to be sold when the removal takes effect. Expectations can be traded before November 30.
Technical analysis
Daily chart: price at 73,984, with all three moving averages overhead. The EMA200 is at 76,207.2, a gap of 2,223 points. The EMA20 is at 77,106.8 and the EMA50 at 78,711.6. The EMA20 is 1,604.8 points below the EMA50, now on day 11 of the death cross; the gap has widened by another 116 points from yesterday’s 1,488.3.
Two new developments. First, the daily MACD histogram is at -323.3, after -382.6 and -365.2 in the previous two bars. It has narrowed for two consecutive bars—the first time in this decline that the absolute value has contracted consecutively, suggesting downward momentum is fading. Second, the daily EMA200 has fallen from 76,246.4 yesterday to 76,207.2. The long-term moving average is starting to slope down. That’s neither bullish nor bearish; it means those extreme candles with 2,000-to-3,000-point ranges are being removed from the calculation window.
RSI is 34.9, up from 33.7 yesterday. It remains in oversold territory, but hasn’t reached 30.
The daily lower Bollinger Band is at 72,575.8, with a bandwidth of 12.63%. Price is at the 13.6th percentile of the 20-day range from 72,727.27 to 81,971. Daily ATR is 2,104.2. On the weekly chart, the price is down 2.48% so far this week from last week’s close of 75,867.59. The last four weekly candles were -1.98%, -2.39%, -2.25%, and -4.47%.
4H: EMA20 is at 74,453.3, 469 points above the price. EMA50 is at 75,600.6. The MACD histogram is +82.4, rising for three consecutive bars: 73.4, 79.2, and 82.4. RSI is 41.9. The lower, middle, and upper Bollinger Bands are at 73,131.3, 74,314, and 75,496.7, respectively, with a bandwidth of 3.18%. The 4H recovery is still underway.
1H: The MACD histogram is +2.9, declining across three bars from 49.6 to 23.1 to 2.9, nearing zero. The momentum behind this 1H recovery is basically spent. RSI is 48.1, and Bollinger Band bandwidth is 1.62%.
Across the four timeframes: the 4H is recovering, the 1H recovery is over, and the daily chart has just printed its first narrowing in momentum. The overall position hasn’t changed; all three daily moving averages remain overhead.
Derivatives: positions are being reduced without crashing the price
Open interest is 96,626 contracts, with a notional value of $7.148 billion. At 8 p.m. last night it was 100,784 contracts, the peak of this 44-hour window, with a notional value of $7.454 billion. Over the following 12 hours, it fell in three successive steps, dropping by 4,158 contracts, or 4.13%. Over the same period, the price retreated from last night’s high of 74,811 to a mark price of 73,952, down 1.1%. Positions were reduced after open interest peaked, without crashing the price. This looks more like longs who entered during the rebound taking profits, with shorts also closing some positions along the way.
At 8 a.m. yesterday, open interest was 99,545 contracts, a net decline of 2,919 over 24 hours. Yesterday’s direction was rising open interest alongside falling prices; today it’s the reverse.
Funding is 0.003823%, down from 0.008241% yesterday, moving another step toward zero. Longs still aren’t paying.
Retail long accounts: 73.57% at midnight last night, 72.27% at 4 a.m., and 72.59% now, on top of yesterday’s 74.73%—four straight declines. On November 5, this group was shaken down to 58.17%, then bought back all the way to 74%. Now they’ve been pulling out for four days in a row. It’s a slow retreat, not a stampede, but this is the first time the direction has turned consistently.
Liquidation data was unavailable at the time of writing.
Trading volume: $1.183 billion over the rolling 24 hours. On a daily basis, it was $1.172 billion on November 9, $1.218 billion on November 10, and $1.194 billion on November 11—three straight days hovering between $1.1 billion and $1.2 billion. This is neither a high-volume recovery nor a market running dry.
That 40x short
Trader AguilaTrades’ 40x BTC short is 0.44% away from liquidation, with cumulative losses of about $39.09 million. Back-calculating from the snapshot mark price of 73,952.6, the liquidation level is around 74,280, about 300 points from the current price.
This cuts both ways. If the price rises another 0.44%, this short gets liquidated. Liquidation means buying, which can provide short-term fuel. But 74,280 is below the 4H EMA20 at 74,453, so the short-squeeze fuel is hitting the door of a resistance zone. A move up there doesn’t count; it has to hold above it.
There’s another side to it: someone is willing to place a 40x short around 73,000, betting that the rebound will fail. Short-selling capital hasn’t left; it’s just moved to a different level.
Key levels
Below: 73,456 (1H lower Bollinger Band), 73,209 (yesterday’s low), and 73,131 (4H lower Bollinger Band)—all within a 78-to-325-point range. Further down is 72,727.27, this cycle’s low. Then 72,575.8, the daily lower Bollinger Band. Below that is the round-number level of 72,000; within the 30-day window, there’s no reference point below 72,727.
Above: 74,092 (1H EMA20) and 74,208 (1H EMA50). Around 74,280 is the estimated liquidation level for that short. Then 74,453 (4H EMA20), 74,657 (1H upper Bollinger Band), and 74,811 (yesterday’s high). Next are 75,497 to 75,600 (1H EMA200 and 4H EMA50), followed by 76,207 (daily EMA200).
Scenarios
Scenario 1, 40%. Price chops between 73,200 and 74,100, with rebounds to 74,200–74,450 getting rejected and the center of gravity gradually drifting lower. Trigger conditions: the 1H candle fails to close back above 74,100, open interest continues to decline, and funding stays near zero.
Scenario 2, 30%. Short squeeze. Price pushes above 74,280, and short liquidations trigger a short-term move higher to test 74,657–74,811. It only counts if price holds there on increased volume; otherwise, it’s just another wick. Trigger conditions: after price touches 74,280, open interest turns higher and funding rises.
Scenario 3, 30%. The daily candle closes below 72,727.27, confirming the breakdown, with 72,000 as the first stop. Trigger conditions: a daily close below that level and open interest starting to rise again.
Reasons to lean lower or sideways: relative strength (the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 7% versus Bitcoin up 0.4%), expected selling pressure from MSCI’s removal, and continued ETF outflows. Reasons a deep drop may not happen: the daily MACD has narrowed for the first time in consecutive readings, 72,727 hasn’t been retested for two days, and retail longs are pulling back as leverage declines.
How to trade it
Intraday, watch the 74,280–74,453 zone during rebounds. If the squeeze reaches that zone, the 1H candle leaves an upper wick, and open interest doesn’t rise, look for a pullback, with 73,456–73,209 as the target area. Invalidation: a 1H close above 74,500. Conversely, if a 4H candle closes above 74,811 with rising open interest and funding, the resistance zone becomes a breakout zone, with 75,497–75,600 as the target area. Invalidation: a move back below 74,453.
For swing trades, don’t enter around 74,000; wait for either extreme. Above: two consecutive 4H closes above 75,600. Below: a daily close below 72,727.
For those holding positions, watch 73,456; use 73,209–73,131 as the exit reference. If 72,727 breaks, there’s no support buffer below, so look straight to 72,000.
Three numbers, checked
The three numbers from yesterday, checked against today. ETF data: the latest is still November 9, with $201 million in net outflows; no update. Funding: 0.0038%, moving even further from 0.01%. The daily EMA200 is at 76,207, 2,223 points above the price; reclaiming it is out of the question for now. Not one of the three numbers has moved. Today, let’s add a fourth testable one: MSCI’s removal takes effect on November 30. If Bitcoin can rise before then, it means this bearish news hasn’t been priced in early; if it can’t, this is the weight pressing down on any rebound.
Where things stand
Down 41.41% from the October 6, 2025 high of 126,080. Down 8.17% in 7 days, 9.68% in 30 days, 4.39% in 60 days, 4.84% in 200 days, and 28.36% in a year. Over the past week, ETH is up 8.37% and XRP 14.06%, while BTC is down 8.17%. This comparison hasn’t changed since yesterday.
Risks
One: The short’s liquidation level is an estimate back-calculated from the mark price and 0.44% distance. The actual liquidation line changes with maintenance margin and added positions. The whale may also close voluntarily, so a short squeeze isn’t guaranteed.
Two: The scale of passive selling pressure from MSCI’s removal of Strategy has not been disclosed. It takes effect on November 30, and the timing of any trading based on expectations can’t be verified.
Three: The AI trade went in two directions overnight: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was up 7%, while Nvidia fell 9% after hours. How U.S. equities price the removal rumors tonight could directly rewrite the weight of every scenario today.
Four: ETF data is current only through November 9, a two-day lag, so it can’t be used to judge today’s capital flows.
Five: Trading volume of $1.183 billion isn’t a surge. Even if Scenario 2 plays out, treat any move that fails to hold above 74,811 as a wick. Don’t mistake fuel for direction.