After the close on November 30, Strategy, Metaplanet, and Upexi will all disappear from MSCI indices, as confirmed by MSCI’s final list. The market had been betting that “the index provider would go easy on them”—that bet was wrong. Passive funds don’t care about the narrative; they only care about the list. Once the list changes, they have to sell. There’s no room for negotiation.
The core of the Bitcoin treasury company playbook is to raise funds at a premium, buy more coins, and increase the amount of Bitcoin backing each share. But once a company is kicked out of an index, incremental passive buying dries up. What will support the premium then? I looked at the data: stablecoin supply shrank by $14.2 billion over 30 days, its fastest contraction since June 2022. Short-term holders sent $3.6 billion to exchanges, still at a loss. These things happening together is no coincidence.
Bitcoin itself is still hovering around 74K, with $1.2 billion in 24-hour trading volume. For now, the market has little time for the treasury companies’ balance sheets. $BTC $MSTR
The core of the Bitcoin treasury company playbook is to raise funds at a premium, buy more coins, and increase the amount of Bitcoin backing each share. But once a company is kicked out of an index, incremental passive buying dries up. What will support the premium then? I looked at the data: stablecoin supply shrank by $14.2 billion over 30 days, its fastest contraction since June 2022. Short-term holders sent $3.6 billion to exchanges, still at a loss. These things happening together is no coincidence.
Bitcoin itself is still hovering around 74K, with $1.2 billion in 24-hour trading volume. For now, the market has little time for the treasury companies’ balance sheets. $BTC $MSTR
