$INIT The 6.3% bounce mentioned in the previous post has been given back over these four hours: it closed at 0.13366, 5.66% below where it was at the time of the previous post, and also broke below 0.13222, with a low of 0.13136—just 0.65% from that line.
The difference is volume. This four-hour candle traded 16.34 million tokens, versus 32.04 million in the previous candle—half as much. 24-hour trading volume was 39.74 million USDT, also about the same as the 41.51 million in the previous post. Price is still moving lower, but the momentum has thinned out.
The futures side has nothing new to add. The funding rate is -0.121%, compared with -0.118% in the previous post; the two readings are nearly identical. The mark price is 0.13062, a 2.3% discount to spot, still around 2%. Price keeps moving down, but the futures side hasn't shifted further in the same direction.
So I read this as a low break without increased volume, not the start of a new acceleration. To say the decline has halted here, price first needs to close above this candle's opening price of 0.14504 and hold there, with volume returning as well. A break below 0.13136 would be the next step down. The range is 15.7% wide—price can cross it in an hour, and just as easily give it all back.
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The difference is volume. This four-hour candle traded 16.34 million tokens, versus 32.04 million in the previous candle—half as much. 24-hour trading volume was 39.74 million USDT, also about the same as the 41.51 million in the previous post. Price is still moving lower, but the momentum has thinned out.
The futures side has nothing new to add. The funding rate is -0.121%, compared with -0.118% in the previous post; the two readings are nearly identical. The mark price is 0.13062, a 2.3% discount to spot, still around 2%. Price keeps moving down, but the futures side hasn't shifted further in the same direction.
So I read this as a low break without increased volume, not the start of a new acceleration. To say the decline has halted here, price first needs to close above this candle's opening price of 0.14504 and hold there, with volume returning as well. A break below 0.13136 would be the next step down. The range is 15.7% wide—price can cross it in an hour, and just as easily give it all back.
#MarketAnalysis
