U.S. stocks are rallying on hardware earnings, not liquidity.
Overnight, the Nasdaq rose 1.60% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 5.73%. The catalyst was CoreWeave’s earnings report and its raised full-year guidance. That same night, BTC was up just 0.30% over 24 hours, with a 2.19% trading range—less than one-fifth of the Nasdaq’s gain.
NEAR is the clearest example: between 7 p.m. and 9 p.m. last night, it climbed from 3.634 to 3.789. Trading volume in the 8 p.m. hour reached $11.78 million; over the following eleven hours, it totaled just $35.6 million, or less than $3.3 million per hour—28% of that level. The price is now 3.571, 5.7% below the high.
The money hasn’t left, either. BTC’s 24-hour trading volume was $1.186 billion, exactly 1.03 times its own 30-day average—not contracting or expanding. XRP fell 0.7%, with $111 million in trading volume and a 3.8% trading range. People are waiting; nobody is buying.
This means last night’s rally repaired the numbers for AI hardware, not liquidity: the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.66% to 102.9 that same night, gold fell below 4,000, and the market has fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike in December. With interest rates heading higher, the denominator for crypto hasn’t grown. My stance is to wait and see: expect choppy trading, not a broad-based rally.
One thing I’m watching: if NEAR’s hourly trading volume in today’s Asian session climbs back above $8 million and the price gets back above 3.79, I’ll change my view—that would mean money is coming back.
Which will you wait for: the December rate hike to come through, or a surge in NEAR’s trading volume?
$NEAR $BTC $XRP #BinanceSquare #NEAR #HotCPIDecemberHikePriced
Crypto assets are high-risk. The above is my personal observation and does not constitute investment advice. Please make your own judgment (DYOR).
Overnight, the Nasdaq rose 1.60% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 5.73%. The catalyst was CoreWeave’s earnings report and its raised full-year guidance. That same night, BTC was up just 0.30% over 24 hours, with a 2.19% trading range—less than one-fifth of the Nasdaq’s gain.
NEAR is the clearest example: between 7 p.m. and 9 p.m. last night, it climbed from 3.634 to 3.789. Trading volume in the 8 p.m. hour reached $11.78 million; over the following eleven hours, it totaled just $35.6 million, or less than $3.3 million per hour—28% of that level. The price is now 3.571, 5.7% below the high.
The money hasn’t left, either. BTC’s 24-hour trading volume was $1.186 billion, exactly 1.03 times its own 30-day average—not contracting or expanding. XRP fell 0.7%, with $111 million in trading volume and a 3.8% trading range. People are waiting; nobody is buying.
This means last night’s rally repaired the numbers for AI hardware, not liquidity: the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.66% to 102.9 that same night, gold fell below 4,000, and the market has fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike in December. With interest rates heading higher, the denominator for crypto hasn’t grown. My stance is to wait and see: expect choppy trading, not a broad-based rally.
One thing I’m watching: if NEAR’s hourly trading volume in today’s Asian session climbs back above $8 million and the price gets back above 3.79, I’ll change my view—that would mean money is coming back.
Which will you wait for: the December rate hike to come through, or a surge in NEAR’s trading volume?
$NEAR $BTC $XRP #BinanceSquare #NEAR #HotCPIDecemberHikePriced
Crypto assets are high-risk. The above is my personal observation and does not constitute investment advice. Please make your own judgment (DYOR).
