A morning ledger on chips—the US tech sector closed in the green, leveraged semiconductors jumped about 10% in a day, and some are treating the leader’s roughly 5% after-hours drop as if the turmoil has been fully priced in. The ledger says otherwise: the seats are still pinned at about 88%, paying an extremely expensive rent, while money is still pouring in.
$NVDA: about −5.1% in a day / about −18.6% in a week, currently around 162.1. Weekly high around 200.5, giving back about −19.1%. Account long/short ratio around 7.53 (about 88% long; around 9.06 / 90% about a day ago—the seats are being vacated), funding rate around +0.071%/8h, paying extremely expensive rent, OI up around 23.4% over the past day. Price slid from an intraday high around 178.6, is still in the weekly hole, the seats are still crowded at around 88% after only a slight retreat, and they’re paying extremely expensive rent, yet money is pouring in at a rapid clip—don’t take 162.1 to mean that the roughly 5% after-hours dump has fully priced in the turmoil, much less that the weekly hole is behind us.
In the same arena, $SOXL is up around +10.0% in a day and about +1.2% in a week, currently around 63.43. Weekly high around 69.79, giving back around −9.1%; seats at about 64% (long/short ratio around 1.77; around 3.49 / 78% about a day ago—the seats are being vacated), funding rate near zero, OI down around −33.1%. Price has surged and the week has just turned green, yet it has given back around nine points from its weekly high; the seats have retreated from around 78% to around 64%, and money is pulling out even faster.
On one side, the leader is getting dumped after hours, the seats are still pinned at around 88%, paying extremely expensive rent, and money is still pouring in; on the other, the same sector is up about 10%, with both seats and money heading for the exits. Has the turmoil been fully priced in, or are the leader’s seats still crowded while the sector is simply rising on position unwinding? Post a counterexample in the comments.
$NVDA: about −5.1% in a day / about −18.6% in a week, currently around 162.1. Weekly high around 200.5, giving back about −19.1%. Account long/short ratio around 7.53 (about 88% long; around 9.06 / 90% about a day ago—the seats are being vacated), funding rate around +0.071%/8h, paying extremely expensive rent, OI up around 23.4% over the past day. Price slid from an intraday high around 178.6, is still in the weekly hole, the seats are still crowded at around 88% after only a slight retreat, and they’re paying extremely expensive rent, yet money is pouring in at a rapid clip—don’t take 162.1 to mean that the roughly 5% after-hours dump has fully priced in the turmoil, much less that the weekly hole is behind us.
In the same arena, $SOXL is up around +10.0% in a day and about +1.2% in a week, currently around 63.43. Weekly high around 69.79, giving back around −9.1%; seats at about 64% (long/short ratio around 1.77; around 3.49 / 78% about a day ago—the seats are being vacated), funding rate near zero, OI down around −33.1%. Price has surged and the week has just turned green, yet it has given back around nine points from its weekly high; the seats have retreated from around 78% to around 64%, and money is pulling out even faster.
On one side, the leader is getting dumped after hours, the seats are still pinned at around 88%, paying extremely expensive rent, and money is still pouring in; on the other, the same sector is up about 10%, with both seats and money heading for the exits. Has the turmoil been fully priced in, or are the leader’s seats still crowded while the sector is simply rising on position unwinding? Post a counterexample in the comments.
