Everyone was saying Anthropic was going to cancel its IPO.
That’s FALSE.
The company behind Claude said: WE are NOT going to delay.
Moving ahead with the roadshow and wants to list before Thanksgiving.
But there’s one huge problem: nobody can agree on how much it’s worth.
Here’s the 60-second version.
THE VALUATION WAR
Here’s what happened to the number in one month:
October: $2 TRILLION - the dreamMid-October: $1.5T - $1.6T - the banks lower it
November 5: Nasdaq plunges 5.5%, losing $2.5 TRILLION in one day amid the post-midterms AI sell-off
November 6: WSJ says 3 major investors no longer accept $1.5TToday: Investors are asking for $1.1T–$1.3T. One puts it at a flat $1T.That’s $500B to $1 TRILLION wiped out before the IPO.
Without even having gone public yet.Anthropic hasn’t set an official price. Its November 2 S-1/A has the range BLANK: "___ to ___". The last confirmed valuation was $965B in its Series H in May.
THE EMBARRASSING LEAKED FILING
Something really strange happened on November 9–10:
Anthropic emailed the banks a filing with the price:867 million shares at $70–$80Total to be raised: $69.3B — nearly 3x the record set by Saudi Aramco ($25.6B in 2019)
Hours later, it sent ANOTHER email: "that wasn’t accurate, there was an error in the price."
It withdrew it.
And didn’t send corrected figures.
The market read it as damage control: that WAS the real plan, and they withdrew it because $70–$80 was too high for what investors want to pay now
.WHY DON’T INVESTORS WANT TO PAY $1.5T?
3 reasons:
1. Growth has slowedQ2 2026: +144% QoQQ3 2026: +47% QoQ to $16.96BGrowth is still phenomenal, but slowing sharply. And they didn’t publish October’s figures, leaving them blank in the S-1. Investors want to see October’s numbers before putting money in.
2. The losses are enormousQ3 net loss: -$23.29B (improved from -$66.3B in Q2, but still massive)Q3 operating loss: -$567MFuture computing and infrastructure commitments: $895.4B, nearly half due before 2030. $69.8B in the next 12 months alone.
3. The broader climate killed the AI trade
On November 5, after the midterms, the Nasdaq lost $2.5T.
Democrats won, and the market fears they’ll slow data center construction. The whole "infinite AI" thesis was called into question.And Anthropic is the symbol of that thesis.
HOW MUCH DOES IT WANT TO RAISE?
There’s a dispute here too:
Original plan: up to $100B — which would make it the biggest IPO in historyNow they’re talking about: $80B — $64.4B + an extra $26BThat extra $26B is key: it’s a private placement from 7 tech giants that would come in ALONGSIDE the IPO: Google, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Micron, Microsoft, and TSMC.
In other words, the same companies that sell Anthropic chips and cloud services are also investing in it.
It’s a cycle.
WHAT HAPPENS NOW?
Anthropic REJECTS the delay. It wants to list anyway, even at a lower price. Anthropic’s logic is: "Better to take the haircut now and secure $80B-$100B in cash than wait and risk the market getting worse."It has $146.6B in cash as of September 30, so it’s not desperate. But it wants to close the deal before the window shuts.Investors, on the other hand, say: "If you wait a month, maybe the market calms down and you can get a better price.
Or if you go out now, we’ll pay $1T, not $1.5T."Polymarket and Kalshi already reflect this: the chance of listing before December 1 has fallen from 80% to ∼50%.
WHY DOES THIS MATTER FOR CRYPTO?
Because Anthropic is the barometer for the ENTIRE AI sector.
If Anthropic goes public at $1T and plunges on its first day, it’s the official signal that the AI bubble has burst.
And that hits:AI tokens: $FET, $TAO, $RENDER, $VIRTUALSChip stocks: NVDA, AMD, BroadcomThe entire NasdaqIf it goes public at $1.5T and holds up, it means "AI is still alive."
That’s why Cramer said on CNBC: "This IPO could make or break the AI trade.
"MY TAKE:
Anthropic isn’t canceling. It’s negotiating in public.It sent in a filing for $69.3B, withdrew it, and left the price blank.
That’s a signal: "We’re willing to lower the price, but we’re not giving the company away."The real number will be between $1.1T and $1.4T. Not $2T, not $1.5T.
And it’ll list before the end of the year, not in November as it wanted.
The question isn’t WHETHER it will list.
It’s AT WHAT PRICE
Wall Street will have to decide how much to pay for the world’s most hyped AI company, after the market told it "enough."
What do you think? Is Anthropic worth $1.5T, $1T, or not even that?
Will it go public before Thanksgiving, or get pushed back to December?
Sources: WSJ, Reuters, Bloomberg, SEC
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