Morning market update: Prices barely moved overnight, the 200-day moving average is still holding, and the unrealized profit on the short positions edged up again.
07:00: $BTC was about $73,862, up 0.3% in 24 hours; $ETH was about $2,055, up 0.4% in 24 hours (live CoinGecko data). Compared with 21:00 last night ($73,901), prices basically moved sideways all night. The 24-hour range was $73,463–$74,612—so narrow it feels like a holiday.
Short position tracking #33: Shorts opened November 7 at 13:00 in the $75,800–$76,100 range, with a $75,950 average entry. At the current price of $73,862, the price is down 2.75%; with 100x leverage, the remaining half has an unrealized paper profit of about +275%—up from +270% at 21:00 last night. The added short (entry range $74,700–$75,000, average entry $74,850) is now up about +132%, versus +127% last night. Half the position was already closed at Target 1, $73,200: the original position made +362% and the added short +220%. Those are realized gains, not unrealized profits.
The most important level this morning comes at 08:00, one hour from now: the daily close. Yesterday's close was $73,796 (Finnhub data), holding above the 200-day moving average at around $73,191 (using coinlab's figures). The current price of $73,862 is still about $670 above it. If this morning's 08:00 close is also above the line, that would make it a second consecutive day holding above it. A close below would mark the first breakdown in nearly three months, with $71,500–$72,500 as the next stop. On the 4-hour chart: the 00:00 candle closed at $73,935 and the 04:00 candle at $74,338—those were the 17th and 18th consecutive closes below $75,000 since November 9 at 08:00. The longer it stays below, the more firmly the breakdown is confirmed.
Two quick headlines: U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw $95 million in net outflows on Tuesday (Farside data, via CoinDesk), their fourth consecutive day of outflows, though the pace is slowing—$201 million on Monday, $412 million last Friday, and $430 million last Thursday. BlackRock's IBIT alone saw $78.2 million in outflows, marking its eighth consecutive trading day of net redemptions. Wednesday's flow figures are due tonight; whether outflows continue for a fifth straight day or finally reverse is today's second thing to watch. The market has largely priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike in December; the probability of a 50-basis-point hike is about 11.5% (CME FedWatch).
PEPE is down 12.5% in the trending searches over the past day—meme coins are losing steam. ZEC has dropped out of the top 15 trending searches, and the privacy-coin rally has faded. Small-cap coins are just a thermometer; I'm not touching them.
The plan is unchanged: keep holding the remaining half of the short, with Target 2 at $68,000. The stop-loss at $77,500 and the invalidation level of a 4-hour close above $76,250 remain untouched. A rebound to $75,300–$75,500 is still an opportunity to add to the short. Only consider going long if the price reclaims $78,000 and holds above it. If it breaks below $71,500 but fails to recover on a 4-hour close, don't chase the short—hold and wait for $68,000. Use only a very small portion of total capital for 100x leverage. Next up: the 08:00 daily close (whether the 200-day moving average holds), ETF flows tonight, and Friday, November 13: PPI and the expiry of 33,902 BTC options (max pain at $77,000). Do you think this morning's daily close can hold above the 200-day moving average? Let's discuss in the comments. (Prices: live CoinGecko data at 07:00 Beijing time, November 12; chart shows the past 24 hours.)
07:00: $BTC was about $73,862, up 0.3% in 24 hours; $ETH was about $2,055, up 0.4% in 24 hours (live CoinGecko data). Compared with 21:00 last night ($73,901), prices basically moved sideways all night. The 24-hour range was $73,463–$74,612—so narrow it feels like a holiday.
Short position tracking #33: Shorts opened November 7 at 13:00 in the $75,800–$76,100 range, with a $75,950 average entry. At the current price of $73,862, the price is down 2.75%; with 100x leverage, the remaining half has an unrealized paper profit of about +275%—up from +270% at 21:00 last night. The added short (entry range $74,700–$75,000, average entry $74,850) is now up about +132%, versus +127% last night. Half the position was already closed at Target 1, $73,200: the original position made +362% and the added short +220%. Those are realized gains, not unrealized profits.
The most important level this morning comes at 08:00, one hour from now: the daily close. Yesterday's close was $73,796 (Finnhub data), holding above the 200-day moving average at around $73,191 (using coinlab's figures). The current price of $73,862 is still about $670 above it. If this morning's 08:00 close is also above the line, that would make it a second consecutive day holding above it. A close below would mark the first breakdown in nearly three months, with $71,500–$72,500 as the next stop. On the 4-hour chart: the 00:00 candle closed at $73,935 and the 04:00 candle at $74,338—those were the 17th and 18th consecutive closes below $75,000 since November 9 at 08:00. The longer it stays below, the more firmly the breakdown is confirmed.
Two quick headlines: U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw $95 million in net outflows on Tuesday (Farside data, via CoinDesk), their fourth consecutive day of outflows, though the pace is slowing—$201 million on Monday, $412 million last Friday, and $430 million last Thursday. BlackRock's IBIT alone saw $78.2 million in outflows, marking its eighth consecutive trading day of net redemptions. Wednesday's flow figures are due tonight; whether outflows continue for a fifth straight day or finally reverse is today's second thing to watch. The market has largely priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike in December; the probability of a 50-basis-point hike is about 11.5% (CME FedWatch).
PEPE is down 12.5% in the trending searches over the past day—meme coins are losing steam. ZEC has dropped out of the top 15 trending searches, and the privacy-coin rally has faded. Small-cap coins are just a thermometer; I'm not touching them.
The plan is unchanged: keep holding the remaining half of the short, with Target 2 at $68,000. The stop-loss at $77,500 and the invalidation level of a 4-hour close above $76,250 remain untouched. A rebound to $75,300–$75,500 is still an opportunity to add to the short. Only consider going long if the price reclaims $78,000 and holds above it. If it breaks below $71,500 but fails to recover on a 4-hour close, don't chase the short—hold and wait for $68,000. Use only a very small portion of total capital for 100x leverage. Next up: the 08:00 daily close (whether the 200-day moving average holds), ETF flows tonight, and Friday, November 13: PPI and the expiry of 33,902 BTC options (max pain at $77,000). Do you think this morning's daily close can hold above the 200-day moving average? Let's discuss in the comments. (Prices: live CoinGecko data at 07:00 Beijing time, November 12; chart shows the past 24 hours.)
