The MSCI shoe has dropped, but the real verdict was delivered long ago: MSTR is now a discounted stock, not a premium one.
MSCI confirmed that it will remove Strategy from its global indexes, effective after the close on November 30. JPMorgan estimates that passive funds will need to sell about $2.8 billion worth of shares.
But MSTR still closed up 1.06% that day, at $122.35, before edging down slightly after hours—the rules were announced on October 15, and the market had already priced them in.
The more important number is mNAV, at just 0.88x—a 12.2% discount. At its peak, it traded at a 6.5x premium.
BTC is around $74,110, still below Saylor's average purchase price of $75,456, leaving the position at an unrealized loss.
My take: the removal itself doesn't sell a single BTC; the $2.8 billion in selling is in shares. What really breaks is the financing flywheel—issuing shares at a discount to buy bitcoin means losing more with every purchase. Saylor's ATM machine for selling shares to buy bitcoin has run out of steam.
So MSTR's anchor now isn't whether BTC goes up, but whether mNAV can get back above 1. If it can't, buying bitcoin just means dilution.
Three things to watch next: the pace of passive selling ahead of November 30, whether the mNAV discount narrows, and whether Saylor is still buying bitcoin in the November 16 8-K.
Do you think MSTR's 12% discount is a buy-the-dip signal, or the beginning of the flywheel grinding to a halt?
$BTC
#MSCI #Strategy #Bitcoin
The above is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
MSCI confirmed that it will remove Strategy from its global indexes, effective after the close on November 30. JPMorgan estimates that passive funds will need to sell about $2.8 billion worth of shares.
But MSTR still closed up 1.06% that day, at $122.35, before edging down slightly after hours—the rules were announced on October 15, and the market had already priced them in.
The more important number is mNAV, at just 0.88x—a 12.2% discount. At its peak, it traded at a 6.5x premium.
BTC is around $74,110, still below Saylor's average purchase price of $75,456, leaving the position at an unrealized loss.
My take: the removal itself doesn't sell a single BTC; the $2.8 billion in selling is in shares. What really breaks is the financing flywheel—issuing shares at a discount to buy bitcoin means losing more with every purchase. Saylor's ATM machine for selling shares to buy bitcoin has run out of steam.
So MSTR's anchor now isn't whether BTC goes up, but whether mNAV can get back above 1. If it can't, buying bitcoin just means dilution.
Three things to watch next: the pace of passive selling ahead of November 30, whether the mNAV discount narrows, and whether Saylor is still buying bitcoin in the November 16 8-K.
Do you think MSTR's 12% discount is a buy-the-dip signal, or the beginning of the flywheel grinding to a halt?
$BTC
#MSCI #Strategy #Bitcoin
The above is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.