The decision everyone had been waiting two months for is finally out: MSCI has officially removed Strategy from its global indexes.
The facts: MSCI announced its final November review list on Nov. 11 (Reuters, Nov. 11; confirmed by KuCoin News): Strategy and other treasury companies — Metaplanet and Upexi — were also removed because they were considered more like investment companies than operating businesses. The changes take effect after the market closes on Nov. 30. JPMorgan had previously estimated that passive funds could sell up to US$2.8 billion worth of MSTR shares — but that figure came from an initial proposal, not the final rules; Strategy itself says MSCI-tracking funds hold only around 13 million shares (3.1 percent). MSTR shares fell 0.8 percent in after-hours trading Wednesday and are already down about 20 percent this year.
My take: what’s being removed here is the stock, not the bitcoin. The index rules don’t force Strategy to sell the 850,364 BTC it holds, and MSTR isn’t being delisted from Nasdaq. What’s really being tested is its business model: without passive fund inflows, it will be harder to sustain the stock’s premium to the value of its BTC — and that premium is what fuels Strategy’s issuance of new shares to buy BTC. BTC is around US$74,266 this morning, still below Strategy’s cost basis of around US$75,456, so its BTC position is underwater too.
What I’m watching: MSTR’s reaction when the US session opens, whether passive funds start selling before Nov. 30, and whether other treasury companies on the watchlist come under pressure too.
What do you think: is this the end of the BTC treasury model, or does it clear the way for genuinely operational companies?
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
#MSCI #Strategy $BTC
The facts: MSCI announced its final November review list on Nov. 11 (Reuters, Nov. 11; confirmed by KuCoin News): Strategy and other treasury companies — Metaplanet and Upexi — were also removed because they were considered more like investment companies than operating businesses. The changes take effect after the market closes on Nov. 30. JPMorgan had previously estimated that passive funds could sell up to US$2.8 billion worth of MSTR shares — but that figure came from an initial proposal, not the final rules; Strategy itself says MSCI-tracking funds hold only around 13 million shares (3.1 percent). MSTR shares fell 0.8 percent in after-hours trading Wednesday and are already down about 20 percent this year.
My take: what’s being removed here is the stock, not the bitcoin. The index rules don’t force Strategy to sell the 850,364 BTC it holds, and MSTR isn’t being delisted from Nasdaq. What’s really being tested is its business model: without passive fund inflows, it will be harder to sustain the stock’s premium to the value of its BTC — and that premium is what fuels Strategy’s issuance of new shares to buy BTC. BTC is around US$74,266 this morning, still below Strategy’s cost basis of around US$75,456, so its BTC position is underwater too.
What I’m watching: MSTR’s reaction when the US session opens, whether passive funds start selling before Nov. 30, and whether other treasury companies on the watchlist come under pressure too.
What do you think: is this the end of the BTC treasury model, or does it clear the way for genuinely operational companies?
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
#MSCI #Strategy $BTC