Bitcoin fell as much as 16.8% from its September high, while ETF outflows over the same period totaled $2.22 billion.

In its midweek update on November 11, Bitfinex Alpha warned that weak spot buying, combined with leverage that has yet to unwind, could turn this pullback into a deeper decline. The material marks November 22 as a key test for Bitcoin’s rebound.

· The $2.22 billion figure is the amount of ETF outflows that have already occurred, not a forecast.
· “Deeper decline” is the judgment of Bitfinex analysts and reflects their view.

On November 22, would you rather watch ETF net inflows or see whether leverage is falling?