Bitcoin leverage is at the 99th percentile in two years — and options traders are getting more defensive.
The facts: BTC perpetual open interest is around 353,000 BTC, higher on only 1.2 percent of trading days over the past two years (K33 via The Block & TradingKey, Nov 11). OI is up 12 percent in 30 days while BTC’s price is down 10 percent over the same period. On Derive, the odds of BTC being below $70,000 at Christmas rose from 15 percent to 31 percent, while the odds of it being above $80,000 fell from 53 percent to 26 percent; puts accounted for 55 percent of options premiums traded, up from 36 percent the previous week (The Block, Nov 11). The 30-day BTC–Nasdaq correlation is 0.75, also at its 99th percentile since 2020.
My take: Leverage is piling up as prices weaken — a combination K33 calls “ripe for a squeeze”: a breakdown could trigger a cascade of long liquidations, while a bounce could prompt short covering. OI levels like these were last seen near the October 2025 peak and at the end of the November 2025 sell-off. This isn’t a directional signal — a squeeze could go either way — but the odds of a big move are rising. BTC itself is still around 74,400, below 75,700.
What I’m watching next: whether OI starts falling (positions getting flushed out) or rises again, and the U.S. PPI release on Friday, Nov 13, at 20:30 WIB.
What do you think — if this squeeze comes, which direction will happen first: a breakdown or a bounce?
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
#Bitcoin #Leverage $BTC
The facts: BTC perpetual open interest is around 353,000 BTC, higher on only 1.2 percent of trading days over the past two years (K33 via The Block & TradingKey, Nov 11). OI is up 12 percent in 30 days while BTC’s price is down 10 percent over the same period. On Derive, the odds of BTC being below $70,000 at Christmas rose from 15 percent to 31 percent, while the odds of it being above $80,000 fell from 53 percent to 26 percent; puts accounted for 55 percent of options premiums traded, up from 36 percent the previous week (The Block, Nov 11). The 30-day BTC–Nasdaq correlation is 0.75, also at its 99th percentile since 2020.
My take: Leverage is piling up as prices weaken — a combination K33 calls “ripe for a squeeze”: a breakdown could trigger a cascade of long liquidations, while a bounce could prompt short covering. OI levels like these were last seen near the October 2025 peak and at the end of the November 2025 sell-off. This isn’t a directional signal — a squeeze could go either way — but the odds of a big move are rising. BTC itself is still around 74,400, below 75,700.
What I’m watching next: whether OI starts falling (positions getting flushed out) or rises again, and the U.S. PPI release on Friday, Nov 13, at 20:30 WIB.
What do you think — if this squeeze comes, which direction will happen first: a breakdown or a bounce?
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
#Bitcoin #Leverage $BTC