ETH has fallen twice as much as BTC this time, but its two biggest sellers may have gone quiet at the same time
ETH is down about 14% in a week, while BTC is down only about 8%; at current prices, ETH/BTC is around 0.0279, its lowest since July 9.
ETH is currently around $2,082, below its 200-day moving average (about $2,154). Its November 10 close was the lowest since August 18.
But ETF selling suddenly stalled: there were net outflows totaling $983 million over the past 12 trading days, but on November 10, outflows were just $1.32 million for the day, compared with $184.5 million the day before.
Leverage has also been flushed out: ETH futures saw about $253 million in liquidations over 24 hours, including $193 million in long positions. Its liquidations exceeded BTC's, even though its open interest is only half the size of BTC's.
My take: ETH's weakness isn't due to a new problem. It's because the deleveraging this cycle has been concentrated in ETH, with ETF selling and long liquidations hitting it from both sides. Now both sides are close to running out of steam, yet the price is still below its moving average. That suggests the market just doesn't dare sell it down further—it still doesn't dare buy in.
The key isn't ETH's price in dollars, but ETH/BTC: Bitfinex's reversal confirmation level is 0.0298. Only a reclaim and hold above that level would count as a return of capital. It's now at 0.0279, still about 6% short of that level.
Watch three variables next: whether daily outflows from ETH ETFs can stay near zero or even turn positive; whether ETH/BTC can hold above 0.0298; and whether BTC will test $70,000. According to Bitfinex's estimates, if it really does fall that far, the median altcoin would drop another 8–10%, and ETH wouldn't escape either.
Is the ETH you hold among those flushed out in this round, or are you waiting for the ratio to get above 0.0298 before making a move?
$ETH $BTC
#以太坊 #ETHBTC #ETF资金流 #Deleveraging
The above is only a compilation of market information and does not constitute investment advice.
ETH is down about 14% in a week, while BTC is down only about 8%; at current prices, ETH/BTC is around 0.0279, its lowest since July 9.
ETH is currently around $2,082, below its 200-day moving average (about $2,154). Its November 10 close was the lowest since August 18.
But ETF selling suddenly stalled: there were net outflows totaling $983 million over the past 12 trading days, but on November 10, outflows were just $1.32 million for the day, compared with $184.5 million the day before.
Leverage has also been flushed out: ETH futures saw about $253 million in liquidations over 24 hours, including $193 million in long positions. Its liquidations exceeded BTC's, even though its open interest is only half the size of BTC's.
My take: ETH's weakness isn't due to a new problem. It's because the deleveraging this cycle has been concentrated in ETH, with ETF selling and long liquidations hitting it from both sides. Now both sides are close to running out of steam, yet the price is still below its moving average. That suggests the market just doesn't dare sell it down further—it still doesn't dare buy in.
The key isn't ETH's price in dollars, but ETH/BTC: Bitfinex's reversal confirmation level is 0.0298. Only a reclaim and hold above that level would count as a return of capital. It's now at 0.0279, still about 6% short of that level.
Watch three variables next: whether daily outflows from ETH ETFs can stay near zero or even turn positive; whether ETH/BTC can hold above 0.0298; and whether BTC will test $70,000. According to Bitfinex's estimates, if it really does fall that far, the median altcoin would drop another 8–10%, and ETH wouldn't escape either.
Is the ETH you hold among those flushed out in this round, or are you waiting for the ratio to get above 0.0298 before making a move?
$ETH $BTC
#以太坊 #ETHBTC #ETF资金流 #Deleveraging
The above is only a compilation of market information and does not constitute investment advice.