$BTC Bitcoin reclaimed the 200-day moving average overnight, but this is just “not breaking down”—not a “reversal”
Tuesday’s low hit $72,727, briefly dipping below the 200-day moving average at $73,163 intraday. Overnight, the price rebounded to around $74,400, leaving roughly $1,200 of breathing room above the 200-day line. Following the rule we’ve stuck to for days: only look toward $70,000 if the close fails to hold $73,163. It held at this morning’s 8 a.m. close, making this the first step toward stabilizing.
But don’t rush to call a bottom—the flow of funds hasn’t turned around yet:
- U.S. spot ETFs saw net outflows of $95 million on Tuesday, their fourth straight day of outflows; November’s cumulative outflows are around $1.6 billion
- IBIT saw $78 million in outflows in a single day, its eighth straight day of outflows, bringing the cumulative total to around $1.73 billion
- Outflows are slowing ($430 million → $412 million → $201 million → $95 million), but consecutive net outflows mean there’s still nobody stepping in to buy
What the bulls are saying: The 200-day line held, and after the liquidation wave, bears have run out of fuel. @paulxue1979’s “five pairs of underwear” has only the final 200-week line left; a short-term oversold bounce could come at any time.
What the bears are saying: ETFs are bleeding out and the odds of a December rate hike are 85%. Price hasn’t even touched $75,000–$75,500; if it can’t reclaim that range, this is just a dead-cat bounce.
My take: Until $75,000–$75,500 is reclaimed, treat every rebound as a dead-cat bounce—don’t chase or add to your position. A close holding above $73,163 is only the first step toward stabilizing. MSCI will announce its final list at 6 a.m. today, settling whether Strategy stays or goes. JPMorgan estimates passive selling pressure at around $2.8 billion—don’t make a big directional bet before the list is announced.
Tuesday’s low hit $72,727, briefly dipping below the 200-day moving average at $73,163 intraday. Overnight, the price rebounded to around $74,400, leaving roughly $1,200 of breathing room above the 200-day line. Following the rule we’ve stuck to for days: only look toward $70,000 if the close fails to hold $73,163. It held at this morning’s 8 a.m. close, making this the first step toward stabilizing.
But don’t rush to call a bottom—the flow of funds hasn’t turned around yet:
- U.S. spot ETFs saw net outflows of $95 million on Tuesday, their fourth straight day of outflows; November’s cumulative outflows are around $1.6 billion
- IBIT saw $78 million in outflows in a single day, its eighth straight day of outflows, bringing the cumulative total to around $1.73 billion
- Outflows are slowing ($430 million → $412 million → $201 million → $95 million), but consecutive net outflows mean there’s still nobody stepping in to buy
What the bulls are saying: The 200-day line held, and after the liquidation wave, bears have run out of fuel. @paulxue1979’s “five pairs of underwear” has only the final 200-week line left; a short-term oversold bounce could come at any time.
What the bears are saying: ETFs are bleeding out and the odds of a December rate hike are 85%. Price hasn’t even touched $75,000–$75,500; if it can’t reclaim that range, this is just a dead-cat bounce.
My take: Until $75,000–$75,500 is reclaimed, treat every rebound as a dead-cat bounce—don’t chase or add to your position. A close holding above $73,163 is only the first step toward stabilizing. MSCI will announce its final list at 6 a.m. today, settling whether Strategy stays or goes. JPMorgan estimates passive selling pressure at around $2.8 billion—don’t make a big directional bet before the list is announced.