$INIT The previous post described 0.14967 as the level where “a break would need to be accompanied by rising volume.” It did break, reaching a low of 0.13222, 11.7% below that level; but only 31.86 million tokens traded over four hours, 7.4% fewer than the 34.42 million in the previous candle. The low was broken without a surge in volume, so there’s half as much evidence for this being the “next leg down.”
The final hour did pull back, though: the price climbed from 0.13281 to 0.14115, up 6.3%, and closed near the hour’s high of 0.1416. The current price is 6.2% below the 0.1505 level at the time of the previous post, and the 24-hour change is -52.07%.
The derivatives market, however, hasn’t turned around with it. The funding rate is -0.118%, further into negative territory than the -0.074% in the previous post; the mark price of 0.13754 is now at a 2.6% discount to spot, up from 1.7%. The price has bounced, but funding costs haven’t shifted with it.
I don’t read this candle as a bottom, just a pullback after the level broke. To call it a recovery driven by buyers, the price would first need to close above 0.14967 and hold there, with the discount narrowing too. If 0.13222 breaks again, this hour’s 6.3% gain goes back first. This candle’s range was 16.3%; if the price can move 6.3% in an hour, it can give that back in the same amount of time.
#MarketAnalysis
The final hour did pull back, though: the price climbed from 0.13281 to 0.14115, up 6.3%, and closed near the hour’s high of 0.1416. The current price is 6.2% below the 0.1505 level at the time of the previous post, and the 24-hour change is -52.07%.
The derivatives market, however, hasn’t turned around with it. The funding rate is -0.118%, further into negative territory than the -0.074% in the previous post; the mark price of 0.13754 is now at a 2.6% discount to spot, up from 1.7%. The price has bounced, but funding costs haven’t shifted with it.
I don’t read this candle as a bottom, just a pullback after the level broke. To call it a recovery driven by buyers, the price would first need to close above 0.14967 and hold there, with the discount narrowing too. If 0.13222 breaks again, this hour’s 6.3% gain goes back first. This candle’s range was 16.3%; if the price can move 6.3% in an hour, it can give that back in the same amount of time.
#MarketAnalysis
