Early this morning, I checked the identity-chain ledger—during the day it was up about 2.5 points, and some people want to call that climbing out of the hole. The ledger says otherwise: price is still in the weekly hole, collecting a hefty subsidy from inverted funding, while neither money nor seats have moved.
$WLD: up about 2.6% in a day / down about 16.0% in a week, currently around 0.3149. Weekly high around 0.384, giving back about 18.0%. Long/short account ratio around 1.28 (about 56% long; roughly a day ago it was 1.24 / 55%, barely changed). Funding is inverted at about −0.0137%/8h, paying a hefty subsidy; OI has barely moved over the past day (about +0.3%). Price is up, but still in the weekly hole; seats aren't crowded or moving, it's collecting a hefty subsidy, and money hasn't come in—don't take 0.3149 and an up-move of about 2.5 points as proof the identity chain is out of the hole, let alone that the weekly hole is behind us.
In the same scene, $HYPE is up about 1.7% in a day and down about 12.7% in a week, currently around 73.17. Weekly high around 84.89, giving back about 13.8%. Seats are around 59% (long/short ratio about 1.47; roughly a day ago it was 1.59 / 61%—seats are pulling back). Funding is about +0.0050%/8h, paying rent, and OI is about +3.3%. It's also turning up; the hole is a little shallower, seats are pulling back, but it's still paying rent and money is flowing in.
One side is turning up while collecting a hefty subsidy, with neither money nor seats moving; the other is still paying rent, seats are pulling back, yet money is flowing in. Is this proof they're out of the hole, or just a subsidy propping things up in the weekly hole while the ledger hasn't caught up? Drop a counterexample in the comments.
$WLD: up about 2.6% in a day / down about 16.0% in a week, currently around 0.3149. Weekly high around 0.384, giving back about 18.0%. Long/short account ratio around 1.28 (about 56% long; roughly a day ago it was 1.24 / 55%, barely changed). Funding is inverted at about −0.0137%/8h, paying a hefty subsidy; OI has barely moved over the past day (about +0.3%). Price is up, but still in the weekly hole; seats aren't crowded or moving, it's collecting a hefty subsidy, and money hasn't come in—don't take 0.3149 and an up-move of about 2.5 points as proof the identity chain is out of the hole, let alone that the weekly hole is behind us.
In the same scene, $HYPE is up about 1.7% in a day and down about 12.7% in a week, currently around 73.17. Weekly high around 84.89, giving back about 13.8%. Seats are around 59% (long/short ratio about 1.47; roughly a day ago it was 1.59 / 61%—seats are pulling back). Funding is about +0.0050%/8h, paying rent, and OI is about +3.3%. It's also turning up; the hole is a little shallower, seats are pulling back, but it's still paying rent and money is flowing in.
One side is turning up while collecting a hefty subsidy, with neither money nor seats moving; the other is still paying rent, seats are pulling back, yet money is flowing in. Is this proof they're out of the hole, or just a subsidy propping things up in the weekly hole while the ledger hasn't caught up? Drop a counterexample in the comments.
