Rystad Energy: Venezuela will be able to compete for major international capital for new oil projects starting in 2030
The firm notes that competition for global multibillion-dollar budgets will be postponed until projects in the Orinoco Oil Belt demonstrate execution capability, competitive costs, and legal stability.
The revival of Venezuela’s energy sector is shaping up to be a gradual process, with major projects not immediately affecting investment decisions in the region.
According to analysis by consultancy Rystad Energy, Venezuela will only begin competing directly for large volumes of international capital earmarked for new developments in the 2030s, prioritizing the rehabilitation of its mature fields and existing deposits in the short term.
The firm rules out the prospect of capital flowing into Venezuela’s industry diverting resources in the short or medium term from other development hubs in Latin America, such as Guyana, Argentina’s Vaca Muerta, or Brazil’s Equatorial Margin.
According to Rob Cordray, Rystad Energy’s managing director for the Americas, competition for global multibillion-dollar budgets will be postponed until projects in the Orinoco Oil Belt demonstrate execution, competitive costs, and legal stability.
Cordray added that, in the long term, “a stable Venezuela that is attractive to investment will undoubtedly change the trajectory of future investment in oil and gas, although that won’t happen tomorrow, and probably not next year either.”
Companies’ caution
The enactment of the 2026 Hydrocarbons Law marked a significant regulatory advance by expanding private-sector participation through Productive Participation Contracts (CPPs) and setting fiscal terms that can be adapted to each project.
Despite contracts being awarded in areas such as the Orinoco Oil Belt, the west, and offshore areas, the international industry remains cautious.
Radhika Bansal, Rystad Energy’s senior vice president, notes that the initial recovery will be driven by companies with an existing presence in the country. “We believe Venezuela’s short-term recovery is based primarily on rehabilitating mature fields. Mature-field operators are more likely to act first because they already have wells, infrastructure, and operational knowledge,” she explained.
In that regard, she noted that for companies such as Chevron, restarting operations in their current assets is tactically more viable than it is for other global players.
Regarding the major projects in the Orinoco Belt, Bansal explained that “greenfield development will become much more important in the 2030s” and warned that “the high investment figures announced for new projects in the Orinoco should be viewed as long-term financing needs rather than short-term committed capital expenditures.”
For his part, Rob Cordray echoed this cautious view about committing large sums to major projects in the near term. “For any major new development project, we need a much stronger track record and greater leeway regarding the durability of these laws. What we’ve seen so far has mainly been rehabilitation, rebuilding, and refurbishment projects. I believe caution is not only justified, but prudent,” he said.
Natural Gas: Long-Term Opportunities
With regard to natural gas, the firm’s analysis identifies the greatest opportunities in the country’s eastern assets, using existing infrastructure in Trinidad and Tobago, such as the Dragon or Loran fields, and avoiding the need to build local liquefaction plants.
When assessing the possibility of Venezuela becoming a direct exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), Bansal dismissed the idea in the near term, describing it as “a long-term prospect, not a short- or medium-term one,” she said in an interview with BNAmericas.
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