Stop watching the price swings and focus on the $75,700 level—$BTC has been below the average cost basis of recent buyers for four consecutive days.
The current price is around $74,522, about $1,200 below the short-term holder cost basis of $75,700 (Finnhub Binance BTC/USDT, Nov. 12, 02:48 Beijing time).
This level is based on Glassnode data: the average cost basis of buyers who entered the market in the past 155 days. The figure was $75,700 on Nov. 4.
Bitfinex data shows that since 2016, BTC has fallen below this level 14 times, and recovered it within two weeks on 11 of those occasions. That puts the end of the window on Nov. 22.
But the same data also gives reason for caution: only 38% of coins held by short-term holders are in profit, down from 97.5% in early October. And this cycle's bottom is being supported by futures open interest, not spot buying.
My take is that Nov. 22 itself isn't important; what matters is how the level is reclaimed. Moving above $75,700 on spot buying and merely touching it on futures short covering are two entirely different signals.
The key point: if BTC can't reclaim it, every rebound near the cost basis gives underwater short-term holders another reason to sell and break even. $75,700 could turn from a cost-basis level into resistance.
Watch two things next: whether BTC can move above $75,700 on rising volume and hold there for two days, and whether ETF flows can turn positive (they were still net outflows of $95 million on Nov. 10).
Do you think this cycle's dip is being bought in the spot market, or is futures propping up the market? What's your cost basis?
#比特币 #链上数据 #BTC market update
The above is a summary of market information only and does not constitute investment advice.
The current price is around $74,522, about $1,200 below the short-term holder cost basis of $75,700 (Finnhub Binance BTC/USDT, Nov. 12, 02:48 Beijing time).
This level is based on Glassnode data: the average cost basis of buyers who entered the market in the past 155 days. The figure was $75,700 on Nov. 4.
Bitfinex data shows that since 2016, BTC has fallen below this level 14 times, and recovered it within two weeks on 11 of those occasions. That puts the end of the window on Nov. 22.
But the same data also gives reason for caution: only 38% of coins held by short-term holders are in profit, down from 97.5% in early October. And this cycle's bottom is being supported by futures open interest, not spot buying.
My take is that Nov. 22 itself isn't important; what matters is how the level is reclaimed. Moving above $75,700 on spot buying and merely touching it on futures short covering are two entirely different signals.
The key point: if BTC can't reclaim it, every rebound near the cost basis gives underwater short-term holders another reason to sell and break even. $75,700 could turn from a cost-basis level into resistance.
Watch two things next: whether BTC can move above $75,700 on rising volume and hold there for two days, and whether ETF flows can turn positive (they were still net outflows of $95 million on Nov. 10).
Do you think this cycle's dip is being bought in the spot market, or is futures propping up the market? What's your cost basis?
#比特币 #链上数据 #BTC market update
The above is a summary of market information only and does not constitute investment advice.