The $BTC rose to $74,500 on Wednesday evening, but Deribit's options market is telling a somewhat different story.
The prevailing idea: the rebound from Tuesday's low ($72,727 on Binance, 10/11 around 16:00 UTC) shows that the market has digested the hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI. Options data paint a more nuanced picture.
What Deribit shows (public API, 11/11 around 18:50 UTC):
- 32,758 BTC of open interest expire on Friday 13/11, or around $2.44 billion in notional value.
- Max pain for this expiry is at $76,000, around $1,500 above the current price.
- The put/call ratio in open interest is 0.54, but the largest position is an $81,000 call (8,306 BTC), far out of the money. On the put side, the heaviest strikes are $72,000, $74,000, and $70,000.
- For the 27/11 expiry (around $5.9 billion), the ratio rises to 0.96, with puts stacked between $69,000 and $72,000.
CoinDesk also noted on Wednesday that puts are trading 4 to 5 volatility points higher than calls, and that spot BTC ETFs saw $95 million in outflows on Tuesday, their fourth consecutive session of outflows, although the pace is slowing.
My take: the rebound is real, but demand for downside protection remains. The $81,000 call looks more like an old bet than a signal.
Two paths before Friday:
- A move back above $75,000 could see the price gravitate toward the $76,000 area as expiry approaches.
- A drop below $74,000 would put the $72,000–$72,700 area (put strike + Tuesday's low) back in focus.
Do you follow max pain, or is it just noise to you?
#Bitcoin #Options
The prevailing idea: the rebound from Tuesday's low ($72,727 on Binance, 10/11 around 16:00 UTC) shows that the market has digested the hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI. Options data paint a more nuanced picture.
What Deribit shows (public API, 11/11 around 18:50 UTC):
- 32,758 BTC of open interest expire on Friday 13/11, or around $2.44 billion in notional value.
- Max pain for this expiry is at $76,000, around $1,500 above the current price.
- The put/call ratio in open interest is 0.54, but the largest position is an $81,000 call (8,306 BTC), far out of the money. On the put side, the heaviest strikes are $72,000, $74,000, and $70,000.
- For the 27/11 expiry (around $5.9 billion), the ratio rises to 0.96, with puts stacked between $69,000 and $72,000.
CoinDesk also noted on Wednesday that puts are trading 4 to 5 volatility points higher than calls, and that spot BTC ETFs saw $95 million in outflows on Tuesday, their fourth consecutive session of outflows, although the pace is slowing.
My take: the rebound is real, but demand for downside protection remains. The $81,000 call looks more like an old bet than a signal.
Two paths before Friday:
- A move back above $75,000 could see the price gravitate toward the $76,000 area as expiry approaches.
- A drop below $74,000 would put the $72,000–$72,700 area (put strike + Tuesday's low) back in focus.
Do you follow max pain, or is it just noise to you?
#Bitcoin #Options
