Down for 4 straight days and still below the line—but history says it reclaimed it within two weeks 11 times out of 14 📉
Today’s Bitfinex Alpha report focuses on one level: Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis at $75,717, the average purchase price for coins bought over the past roughly 155 days. After the CPI release, BTC briefly fell to $72,706, down 16.8% from the September 21 high of $87,392. That was its deepest pullback since the rally that began on July 1, and it has now closed below this cost basis for 4 consecutive days.
Historical data offers a specific point of reference: since 2016, Bitcoin has fallen below this cost basis 14 times, and reclaimed it within two weeks in 11 of those cases. The other 3 recoveries took 57 to 114 days, and the low over the following 90 days fell 17% to 35% below the cost basis. At this pace, the two-week checkpoint for this pullback is November 22—just after Nvidia’s November 17 earnings report and Anthropic’s November 19 IPO.
On-chain data also reflects the pressure: Short-term holder SOPR fell to 0.989 on November 10, its lowest since July 13, meaning recent buyers are selling at an average loss. Net realized losses have totaled about 172,700 coins over 12 consecutive days, or roughly 14,400 per day, though that pace is only a third of the rate seen during the May-to-July downturn. Cost-basis accumulation in the $70,000–$75,000 range grew by about 233,000 coins from November 8 to 11, reaching 762,000, while 1.6 million coins in the $75,000–$80,000 range are now underwater. Any rebound will first have to contend with those holders looking to break even. Futures open interest stands at 701,900 coins, its highest since September 22, while perpetual funding rates remain around 11% annualized—longs are adding to their positions as prices fall. Altcoins have fared even worse: the median among 12 large-cap altcoins is down 27.8% from September 21, about 1.9 times Bitcoin’s 14.8% decline.
$BTC is currently around $74,568 (Binance BTC/USDT, as of November 11 at 18:33 UTC), about $1,200 below the $75,717 cost-basis level. Spot ETFs saw outflows of $201 million on November 9 and $95 million on November 10, marking four consecutive days of outflows. Since October 30, cumulative net outflows have reached $2.22 billion—the largest eight-day outflow since July 2. The options market implies a volatility range of $71,600 to $75,800 for the November 13 expiry.
My take: What makes this report valuable isn’t the “11 recoveries” probability—it’s that it sets clear criteria. Reclaiming $75,717, along with three consecutive days of net ETF inflows, would indicate that this is a pullback. If BTC is still below the level on November 22, historical precedent would favor a deeper correction. In the short term, don’t focus on price alone; watch two signals first: whether ETF outflows can stop, and whether price is rejected or supported when it rebounds toward the cost-basis level. Ahead of Friday’s PPI release, patience is worth more than bravado.
Data as of: 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC
For informational purposes only; not investment advice.
Today’s Bitfinex Alpha report focuses on one level: Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis at $75,717, the average purchase price for coins bought over the past roughly 155 days. After the CPI release, BTC briefly fell to $72,706, down 16.8% from the September 21 high of $87,392. That was its deepest pullback since the rally that began on July 1, and it has now closed below this cost basis for 4 consecutive days.
Historical data offers a specific point of reference: since 2016, Bitcoin has fallen below this cost basis 14 times, and reclaimed it within two weeks in 11 of those cases. The other 3 recoveries took 57 to 114 days, and the low over the following 90 days fell 17% to 35% below the cost basis. At this pace, the two-week checkpoint for this pullback is November 22—just after Nvidia’s November 17 earnings report and Anthropic’s November 19 IPO.
On-chain data also reflects the pressure: Short-term holder SOPR fell to 0.989 on November 10, its lowest since July 13, meaning recent buyers are selling at an average loss. Net realized losses have totaled about 172,700 coins over 12 consecutive days, or roughly 14,400 per day, though that pace is only a third of the rate seen during the May-to-July downturn. Cost-basis accumulation in the $70,000–$75,000 range grew by about 233,000 coins from November 8 to 11, reaching 762,000, while 1.6 million coins in the $75,000–$80,000 range are now underwater. Any rebound will first have to contend with those holders looking to break even. Futures open interest stands at 701,900 coins, its highest since September 22, while perpetual funding rates remain around 11% annualized—longs are adding to their positions as prices fall. Altcoins have fared even worse: the median among 12 large-cap altcoins is down 27.8% from September 21, about 1.9 times Bitcoin’s 14.8% decline.
$BTC is currently around $74,568 (Binance BTC/USDT, as of November 11 at 18:33 UTC), about $1,200 below the $75,717 cost-basis level. Spot ETFs saw outflows of $201 million on November 9 and $95 million on November 10, marking four consecutive days of outflows. Since October 30, cumulative net outflows have reached $2.22 billion—the largest eight-day outflow since July 2. The options market implies a volatility range of $71,600 to $75,800 for the November 13 expiry.
My take: What makes this report valuable isn’t the “11 recoveries” probability—it’s that it sets clear criteria. Reclaiming $75,717, along with three consecutive days of net ETF inflows, would indicate that this is a pullback. If BTC is still below the level on November 22, historical precedent would favor a deeper correction. In the short term, don’t focus on price alone; watch two signals first: whether ETF outflows can stop, and whether price is rejected or supported when it rebounds toward the cost-basis level. Ahead of Friday’s PPI release, patience is worth more than bravado.
Data as of: 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC
For informational purposes only; not investment advice.
