Bitcoin is approaching something it hasn’t experienced in its 18-year history: two consecutive years of annual losses.
It fell 6.34% in 2025 and is down about 16% so far in 2026, for a cumulative drawdown of 21%. If it can’t recover to its $87,500 opening price before year-end, the label “first-ever back-to-back annual losses” will officially stick.
But honestly, the fact that it’s fallen for two years in a row isn’t that important in itself.
Two years of declines sounds scary, but the losses haven’t actually been as bad as before.
Bitcoin fell 73.56% in 2018 and 64.27% in 2022. Those were the years that really dealt a crushing blow.
A 21% drawdown over two years is just a “dull blade” by Bitcoin’s historical standards. The real issue is that this 21% drop has started to make long-term holders let go.
On-chain data shows that LTH-SOPR (Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio) fell to 0.94 on November 10, meaning long-term holders have been selling coins below cost for eight consecutive days. Over the past month, long-term holders’ supply has declined by 171,700 BTC, bringing their total holdings down to around 16.3 million BTC.
Old coins are being sold at a loss—a more concerning sign than the headline “two straight years of declines.”
73,000: Why It’s the Only Number That Matters Right Now
Technically, the 73,000–73,500 range brings together three key levels: the 200-day moving average, recent lows, and the cost basis of corporate holdings.
Price didn’t reach this level by chance.
To the upside, 75,500–76,000 is where former support has turned into resistance. Reclaiming that range is necessary for a short-term rebound. To the downside, if 73,000 breaks on heavy volume, the next likely stop is 68,000–70,000. Wintermute sees it the same way: a daily close below 73,000 and the 200-day moving average would make 68,000 the next target.
So the question now isn’t whether “two straight years of declines would set a record,” but whether bulls can still defend the 73,000 level.
Who’s selling? Institutions are fleeing, leverage is getting wiped out, but panic hasn’t peaked
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.28 billion in net outflows last week, one of the worst figures recently, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading the declines. More than $1 billion in positions were liquidated over the past 48 hours, 90% of them longs.
But the Fear and Greed Index is currently in the 25–30 range, indicating “fear,” but not yet “extreme fear.” This means market sentiment could deteriorate further, and panic selling has not fully run its course.
The view from Fidelity’s vice president of research is also cautious: the bear market may not be over, and November is a key window to watch (the previous bear-market bottom came in November 2022). But historical cycles have never repeated precisely, and BTC could fall again and hit a new low in November or later.
How to approach it in practice
Short-term traders: Try a small long position at 73,500–74,000, aiming for a quick in-and-out trade, with a stop below 72,800 and a target of 75,500. Conversely, if a rebound to 75,500–76,000 meets resistance and volume is weak, try a small short, with a stop above 76,500. If 73,500 breaks on heavy volume, follow the move short, targeting 72,000–70,000.
Swing traders: Wait for one of two signals. If 73,000 holds and price reclaims 76,000, shift to a neutral-to-bullish stance. If 73,000 breaks decisively and the weekly chart confirms it, wait for 68,000–70,000 to stabilize before considering an entry.
Long-term spot investors: Two consecutive down years would be a first in Bitcoin’s history, but that doesn’t mean “this time is different.” Bitcoin rose 92% in 2019 after its 2018 crash, and 155% in 2023 after the 2022 bloodbath. If you believe in the cycle, dollar-cost averaging in around 73,000 should feel a lot better than chasing the price above 75,000.
“Two straight years of declines for the first time in history” makes a good headline, but it isn’t a trading signal. Whether 73,000 holds and when long-term holders stop selling at a loss are the two things that really matter next.
💬 Do you think 73,000 will hold? Where have you set your stop-loss? Drop your level in the comments.