ZEC bounced, but I’m not changing my view
It fell below 1,000 yesterday and bounced back today. That’s an oversold bounce, not a trend reversal.
There’s only one thing to watch: has ETF money come back?
Grayscale’s Zcash ETF (ZCSH) saw $13 million in outflows last week, bringing November’s total outflows to over $15 million. Institutions fueled this privacy narrative, and now they’re the first to pull out.
The technical picture is just as ugly: ZEC has fallen below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, and the MACD has turned negative. Although the Stochastic RSI is oversold and a short-term bounce is possible, if 994 breaks decisively, the next level to watch is 821.
There’s another risk that’s being overlooked: starting in July 2027, Europe will ban trading and custody of privacy coins. This isn’t about sentiment; it’s about market access.
Same goes for UNI. At just over $6, the deflationary upside has long been priced in. Good news getting priced in often marks the top.
My conclusion hasn’t changed: neither of these is worth holding for the long term.
A bounce isn’t a vindication; it’s a window to sell. If you haven’t bought in, the risk-reward at this level is extremely poor—watch, don’t chase.
$UNI $ARIA $ZEC #CPI高于预期，美股与BTC再度承压 #Anthropic拒绝延期IPO，本周路演估值几何？
It fell below 1,000 yesterday and bounced back today. That’s an oversold bounce, not a trend reversal.
There’s only one thing to watch: has ETF money come back?
Grayscale’s Zcash ETF (ZCSH) saw $13 million in outflows last week, bringing November’s total outflows to over $15 million. Institutions fueled this privacy narrative, and now they’re the first to pull out.
The technical picture is just as ugly: ZEC has fallen below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, and the MACD has turned negative. Although the Stochastic RSI is oversold and a short-term bounce is possible, if 994 breaks decisively, the next level to watch is 821.
There’s another risk that’s being overlooked: starting in July 2027, Europe will ban trading and custody of privacy coins. This isn’t about sentiment; it’s about market access.
Same goes for UNI. At just over $6, the deflationary upside has long been priced in. Good news getting priced in often marks the top.
My conclusion hasn’t changed: neither of these is worth holding for the long term.
A bounce isn’t a vindication; it’s a window to sell. If you haven’t bought in, the risk-reward at this level is extremely poor—watch, don’t chase.
$UNI $ARIA $ZEC #CPI高于预期，美股与BTC再度承压 #Anthropic拒绝延期IPO，本周路演估值几何？
