11.12 Chen Jie — Night Analysis
U.S. core CPI rose 0.3% month over month in October, above expectations. U.S. Treasury yields climbed above 5%, and expectations of a December rate hike rose to 88%. Fed officials including Logan signaled support for further hikes. Meanwhile, easing signals from the U.S. and Iran and progress in Russia-Ukraine talks sent oil prices sharply lower, weakening safe-haven demand. ETF holdings also fell by 0.28 tonnes. These bearish factors outweighed support from central bank buying. On Thursday, watch U.S. initial jobless claims and U.K. GDP.
After forming a MACD bearish divergence from the 4148 high, the 4-hour chart broke down. Yesterday’s rebound to 4066.90 was rejected at the 4-hour middle band (4073), followed by a bearish engulfing candle and three black crows. The price fell below the daily middle band (4053) and the 1-hour middle band (4040), reaching 3998. The 4000 level is close to the 4-hour lower band (3994), while the 1-hour RSI has dropped to an extremely oversold 8.56. Overhead, 4024–4034 is a confluence zone: the 15-minute middle band (4023), the 1-hour level (4032), and today’s opening price (4034). Wait for a rebound before entering short.
Trading strategy
Short at 4025–4035; target 3995–3965–3935; stop at 4056#xau $XAU
U.S. core CPI rose 0.3% month over month in October, above expectations. U.S. Treasury yields climbed above 5%, and expectations of a December rate hike rose to 88%. Fed officials including Logan signaled support for further hikes. Meanwhile, easing signals from the U.S. and Iran and progress in Russia-Ukraine talks sent oil prices sharply lower, weakening safe-haven demand. ETF holdings also fell by 0.28 tonnes. These bearish factors outweighed support from central bank buying. On Thursday, watch U.S. initial jobless claims and U.K. GDP.
After forming a MACD bearish divergence from the 4148 high, the 4-hour chart broke down. Yesterday’s rebound to 4066.90 was rejected at the 4-hour middle band (4073), followed by a bearish engulfing candle and three black crows. The price fell below the daily middle band (4053) and the 1-hour middle band (4040), reaching 3998. The 4000 level is close to the 4-hour lower band (3994), while the 1-hour RSI has dropped to an extremely oversold 8.56. Overhead, 4024–4034 is a confluence zone: the 15-minute middle band (4023), the 1-hour level (4032), and today’s opening price (4034). Wait for a rebound before entering short.
Trading strategy
Short at 4025–4035; target 3995–3965–3935; stop at 4056#xau $XAU
