High CPI inflation confirms the Fed’s hawkish stance: Will a December rate hike be decided? 🔥🇺🇸
📊 The U.S. October Consumer Price Index report came in higher than expected, prompting high-risk asset and cryptocurrency markets around the world to react immediately. 📊
ETH$ The headline index rose 0.4% month over month (above the 0.3% forecast), while the core index came in at 0.3% (above the 0.2% estimate). 📈
Note: Due to the data gap caused by the 2025 government shutdown, there is no official annual figure for comparison. ⚠️
🏦 Repricing of rate expectations according to CME FedWatch: 🏦
A 25-basis-point hike is now fully priced in, and markets entered the data release assigning an 85% to 98.9% probability of a December hike. Even after the surprise, 25 basis points remains the base-case scenario.
📈 XRP$ The possibility of a 50-basis-point hike is gaining prominence: After the core index hit the 0.3% threshold set by the Fed chair, the probability jumped to 15.3% (from 1.1% before the data). 📈
🚫 Rate cuts ruled out: Any immediate easing or pause has been pushed back to 2027. 🚫
📉 Impact on crypto and markets: BTC$ fell below $74,000. 📉
Bitcoin under pressure: The price fell to $73,762 after the data and is directly testing crucial support at the 200-day moving average ($73,100), amid $179 million to $200 million in leveraged liquidations. 🪙
💵 Dollar and yields strengthen: High inflation + strong GDP and labor market are supporting the dollar index (DXY) and Treasury yields, so financial conditions remain tight. 💵
🎯 Traders’ takeaway: Does this seal a rate hike?
Yes, with a probability close to 100%. The higher-than-expected reading removed any doubt that the Fed will act in December.
For crypto traders, the focus now is on whether BTC$ can hold support at the 200-day moving average of $73,100, or whether high interest rates will continue to pressure liquidity. 🎯
#BitmineReports$6.3BFiscal2026Loss
