In about 6 hours, some people will translate “$2.8 billion in selling” directly into “Bitcoin is about to crash.” Let’s get the numbers straight first: it’s shares being dumped, not coins. ⚠️
MSCI is expected to announce the results of its November index review around 6 a.m. Beijing time on November 12. If Strategy is removed from the MSCI Global Investable Market Index, passive funds will need to rebalance before the market closes on November 30. JPMorgan previously estimated that related passive selling could total up to about $2.8 billion. The company’s own figures put MSCI-tracking funds’ holdings at about 13 million shares, or 3.1% of its total shares outstanding—worth about $1.57 billion at the November 10 closing price of $121.07 (as reported by Bitcoin.com and cited by PANews). This selling would target MSTR shares, not the $BTC on the company’s balance sheet.
On November 9, Strategy disclosed that it held 850,364 bitcoins as of November 8, acquired at a total cost of about $64.16 billion, or an average price of about $75,450. By comparison, Binance’s price at 11:45 p.m. on the 11th was $74,034, already below that cost basis. The results aren’t out yet, so don’t treat a scenario analysis as a sell-off that has already happened.
The real thing to watch is another possible knock-on effect: if the share price remains under pressure, the company may slow its pace of raising money through stock issuance to buy coins. What could fall is future incremental buying—not the index funds directly selling those 850,000 coins. Until the list is announced, everything is a scenario, not a conclusion.
#比特币 #MSCI
MSCI is expected to announce the results of its November index review around 6 a.m. Beijing time on November 12. If Strategy is removed from the MSCI Global Investable Market Index, passive funds will need to rebalance before the market closes on November 30. JPMorgan previously estimated that related passive selling could total up to about $2.8 billion. The company’s own figures put MSCI-tracking funds’ holdings at about 13 million shares, or 3.1% of its total shares outstanding—worth about $1.57 billion at the November 10 closing price of $121.07 (as reported by Bitcoin.com and cited by PANews). This selling would target MSTR shares, not the $BTC on the company’s balance sheet.
On November 9, Strategy disclosed that it held 850,364 bitcoins as of November 8, acquired at a total cost of about $64.16 billion, or an average price of about $75,450. By comparison, Binance’s price at 11:45 p.m. on the 11th was $74,034, already below that cost basis. The results aren’t out yet, so don’t treat a scenario analysis as a sell-off that has already happened.
The real thing to watch is another possible knock-on effect: if the share price remains under pressure, the company may slow its pace of raising money through stock issuance to buy coins. What could fall is future incremental buying—not the index funds directly selling those 850,000 coins. Until the list is announced, everything is a scenario, not a conclusion.
#比特币 #MSCI