Q4 will probably be when BTC establishes its higher low for its multiyear expansion.
It’s true that Q4 during bear market years is the “window of weakness” for BTC relative to stock performance.
Stocks underperform and drag BTC down with them.
However, in both previous cycles, once BTC bottomed against the Nasdaq and the S&P 500, it never went on to set lower dollar cycle lows.
In each of those cycles, we saw Bitcoin set its cycle ratio low against the indices by mid-December at the latest.
This time, we clearly saw an index ratio low and divergence in the middle of the year, when BTC formed its macro bottom.
“But BTC always bottoms in Q4 during midterm years.”
And historically, it has always marked its cycle bottom after bottoming against the index ratios.
So, if stocks are what’s dragging BTC down, what seems more likely to you? A higher low during the recovery, or another cycle capitulation?
For this time to be the anomaly, we’d have to see BTC substantially underperform both indices after it has already formed a major low.
And then set a new capitulation low against the indices within 30–45 days, with virtually no relief bounce.
Keep betting on that.
$BTC
It’s true that Q4 during bear market years is the “window of weakness” for BTC relative to stock performance.
Stocks underperform and drag BTC down with them.
However, in both previous cycles, once BTC bottomed against the Nasdaq and the S&P 500, it never went on to set lower dollar cycle lows.
In each of those cycles, we saw Bitcoin set its cycle ratio low against the indices by mid-December at the latest.
This time, we clearly saw an index ratio low and divergence in the middle of the year, when BTC formed its macro bottom.
“But BTC always bottoms in Q4 during midterm years.”
And historically, it has always marked its cycle bottom after bottoming against the index ratios.
So, if stocks are what’s dragging BTC down, what seems more likely to you? A higher low during the recovery, or another cycle capitulation?
For this time to be the anomaly, we’d have to see BTC substantially underperform both indices after it has already formed a major low.
And then set a new capitulation low against the indices within 30–45 days, with virtually no relief bounce.
Keep betting on that.
$BTC
