$XAU Although gold ended the week up about 5.2%, its strongest weekly gain since around August. Current price: $4080, and today is Saturday. I think a downward scenario is more likely for several reasons, based on my own thinking 🤷
4150–4152 Major resistance
4107–4115 Potential selling zone
4085–4090 Nearby resistance
4080.50 Current price
4070–4068 Nearby support
4060–4050 Secondary support
4030–4026 Relatively strong support
First scenario: Downward move My preferred scenario If gold rises to 4085–4090 and fails to break through, then breaks below 4070 with a 1-hour close: First target: 4060. Second target: 4030–4026. Further downside: 4000 if 4026 is decisively broken. This scenario becomes stronger if clear price rejection appears alongside increased selling pressure.
Second scenario: Continued rise If gold reclaims 4115 and closes above it on the 4-hour timeframe, then successfully retests it: First target: 4150–4152. After that, we’ll watch for the possibility of continued recovery. At that point, I’ll no longer favor short positions and won’t fight the market.