🟠 $BTC around 73.5k: ETFs see net outflows for 4 sessions, retail longs still crowded
📊 The big picture
• Price is moving sideways between 73.2k–74.2k after a weak rebound stalled at 74.15k
• Nasdaq +0.9% over 24h, but $BTC −1.5% → selling pressure is coming from the crypto market, not macro factors
🏦 Spot BTC ETF flows
• Nov 10: −$95M, the 4th consecutive session of net outflows (IBIT: 8 sessions)
• Outflows are shrinking: −$412M → −$201M → −$95M
👥 Who’s positioned where
• Account long/short ratio: 2.75: retail longs are still crowded (down from 3.05 over 24h)
• The 20 largest Hyperliquid accounts are net short about $320M, with entry prices at 76.4k–77.9k
• Funding: 0.006%/8h, below the 7-day average
📍 Key price levels
• Above: 74.6k–74.9k, a dense supply zone around the 4h EMA20
• Below: 73.18k and 72.7k, where long stop orders are concentrated
🎯 Potential scenarios
A. Short on a rebound into the supply zone
• Entry zone: 74.600–74.810
• Stop loss: 75.255
• Targets: 73.185 (~2.8R) / 72.560 (~3.9R)
• Invalidate if: 2 hourly candles close above 75.030, or the 20 largest Hyperliquid accounts’ net short position falls below $160M
B. Long after a liquidity sweep (confirmation required)
• Conditions: price sweeps 73.184 (ideally 72.700–73.000), then an hourly candle closes back above 73.333, with the account long/short ratio ≤ 2.6 or OI down ≥ 2%
• Entry zone: 73.250–73.350 on a retest
• Stop loss: about 150 points below the sweep low
• Targets: 74.150 (~1.5R) / 74.600–74.700 (~2.4R)
• If price breaks below 72.690 and fails to reclaim it → abandon this scenario
C. Between 73.2k–74.2k ahead of expiry: stay on the sidelines; there’s no clear edge yet
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research, set stop losses, and manage risk.
#HotCPIDecemberHikePriced #binancesquare
📊 The big picture
• Price is moving sideways between 73.2k–74.2k after a weak rebound stalled at 74.15k
• Nasdaq +0.9% over 24h, but $BTC −1.5% → selling pressure is coming from the crypto market, not macro factors
🏦 Spot BTC ETF flows
• Nov 10: −$95M, the 4th consecutive session of net outflows (IBIT: 8 sessions)
• Outflows are shrinking: −$412M → −$201M → −$95M
👥 Who’s positioned where
• Account long/short ratio: 2.75: retail longs are still crowded (down from 3.05 over 24h)
• The 20 largest Hyperliquid accounts are net short about $320M, with entry prices at 76.4k–77.9k
• Funding: 0.006%/8h, below the 7-day average
📍 Key price levels
• Above: 74.6k–74.9k, a dense supply zone around the 4h EMA20
• Below: 73.18k and 72.7k, where long stop orders are concentrated
🎯 Potential scenarios
A. Short on a rebound into the supply zone
• Entry zone: 74.600–74.810
• Stop loss: 75.255
• Targets: 73.185 (~2.8R) / 72.560 (~3.9R)
• Invalidate if: 2 hourly candles close above 75.030, or the 20 largest Hyperliquid accounts’ net short position falls below $160M
B. Long after a liquidity sweep (confirmation required)
• Conditions: price sweeps 73.184 (ideally 72.700–73.000), then an hourly candle closes back above 73.333, with the account long/short ratio ≤ 2.6 or OI down ≥ 2%
• Entry zone: 73.250–73.350 on a retest
• Stop loss: about 150 points below the sweep low
• Targets: 74.150 (~1.5R) / 74.600–74.700 (~2.4R)
• If price breaks below 72.690 and fails to reclaim it → abandon this scenario
C. Between 73.2k–74.2k ahead of expiry: stay on the sidelines; there’s no clear edge yet
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research, set stop losses, and manage risk.
#HotCPIDecemberHikePriced #binancesquare