Bitcoin fell below $74,000 on Wednesday, marking its fifth consecutive weekly decline. Derive puts the probability of a drop below $70,000 before Christmas at 31%.
The Block described the current setup as “ripe for a squeeze,” meaning prices are positioned to be squeezed. The 31% figure is priced in by the options market and reflects Derive’s assessment; it is not a foregone conclusion.
Five consecutive weekly declines show that the trend has persisted, but options-implied probabilities only reflect how the market is pricing tail risks—they are not a directional forecast.
Would you look at funding rates first, or options open interest around $70,000?
$BTC
The Block described the current setup as “ripe for a squeeze,” meaning prices are positioned to be squeezed. The 31% figure is priced in by the options market and reflects Derive’s assessment; it is not a foregone conclusion.
Five consecutive weekly declines show that the trend has persisted, but options-implied probabilities only reflect how the market is pricing tail risks—they are not a directional forecast.
Would you look at funding rates first, or options open interest around $70,000?
$BTC
