Nasdaq futures are up 1.9%. CoreWeave’s earnings have revived the AI narrative: Q3 revenue came in at $3.66 billion, up 168% year over year and ahead of expectations of $3.55 billion. Full-year guidance was raised to $13.0–13.3 billion, and the stock is up 13% premarket. NVDA is also rebounding about 4% premarket.
And crypto? Still going nowhere. $BTC 73,585, just over $400 away from the 200-day moving average at 73,176. This “stocks up, crypto flat” show played once on November 6, again on November 9, and tonight’s premarket is the third time.
Tonight, the real verdict won’t come at the open, but after the close. The final MSCI list will be announced at 17:00 ET today (06:00 tomorrow Beijing time), and take effect at the November 30 close. Will $MSTR stay or go? We’ll find out tonight.
First, let’s make the first principles clear: MSCI’s removal means selling MSTR shares, not BTC itself. JPMorgan estimates about $2.8 billion in passive selling—that’s index funds being forced to sell MSTR shares. But MSTR is the largest corporate BTC holder, with 850,364 BTC at an average cost of 75,456. BTC’s current price has already fallen below its cost basis. Index removal plus a break below cost basis: together, these two signals undermine the “MSTR = BTC proxy” narrative. The proxy premium is gone, and the “corporate buying” story for BTC has lost a piece of the puzzle too.
MSTR closed Tuesday at 121.07, down 3.6%; down 10.7% over five days and 20.7% for the month. If it stays off the removal list, that’s a relief. If it’s removed, count down to November 30 with $2.8 billion hanging over it. The list is the judge—not speculation.
CoreWeave supports the AI spending narrative, not liquidity. CPI came in hot (+0.4%/+0.3%), and the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December are about 85%, versus about 11% for 50 basis points. The bond market is closed today for Veterans Day; the 10-year yield briefly touched 5.03% yesterday, and there’s no new quote tonight. Stocks can tell a story about AI demand; crypto has only liquidity to keep it alive—that’s why the Nasdaq is up 1.9% while BTC is going nowhere. $QQQ closed Tuesday at 674.76, still below its 200-day moving average at 680.89. The conditions for U.S. stocks to shift from “wait and see” to “ready to participate” haven’t materialized either; even the stock rally is only in futures.
BTC’s level gets another verdict at tonight’s close: 73,176 is the 200-day moving average. A close below it would strengthen the bearish case, with the next level at the 70,000 put wall. If it reclaims 75,718, I’ll admit I was wrong and shift to a wait-and-see stance. ETH, around 2,060, is being tested; a close below that points to 2,000. SOL has fallen back below 84, with 80 as the next level. HYPE is around 73.4; 72–73 is the last small support zone.
Which side are you on before the list comes out? If MSTR is removed, does MSTR take the hit first, or BTC? Will BTC hold 73,176 at tonight’s close, or break below it?
The above is solely my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.