Chile's state copper giant booked copper as produced that wasn't. For anyone investing in Andean mining, that matters more than the copper price.
📌 Codelco has preliminarily identified about 42,100 tonnes of copper improperly recorded in 2024 and 2025 (roughly 24,000 and 18,100). Audits with KPMG and EY are still ongoing.
📌 On October 30 the board dismissed eight executives and professionals from Chuquicamata, Ministro Hales, Salvador and headquarters.
📌 On November 9, executive chairman Bernardo Fontaine told La Tercera they expect around 1.2 million tonnes in 2026 and 2027. Getting back to 1.3 million would take about four years and depends on reactivating El Teniente.
📌 Context: Cochilco projects Chile at 4.935 million tonnes in 2026, 8.4% below 2025 and the lowest level since 2003.
My read, as someone who models economic processes:
1. The copper bottleneck isn't price. It's lower ore grades, projects that don't arrive, and numbers you can trust.
2. For a buyer or an investor, reported production is an asset. If it can't be audited, it gets discounted in the price and in the contract.
3. Bolivia is now debating its new Mining Code, with traceability in the draft. That's the moment to make production data from the state, cooperatives and private operators verifiable from day one, not after a scandal.
Crypto people will recognize the pattern: a balance nobody can verify is worth less than a smaller one you can prove.
What attracts more capital to Andean mining: bigger reserves or auditable production data?
Sources: Emol, Energiminas, Reporte Minero / La Tercera, Cochilco.
#Copper #Mining #Bolivia #LatAm
📌 Codelco has preliminarily identified about 42,100 tonnes of copper improperly recorded in 2024 and 2025 (roughly 24,000 and 18,100). Audits with KPMG and EY are still ongoing.
📌 On October 30 the board dismissed eight executives and professionals from Chuquicamata, Ministro Hales, Salvador and headquarters.
📌 On November 9, executive chairman Bernardo Fontaine told La Tercera they expect around 1.2 million tonnes in 2026 and 2027. Getting back to 1.3 million would take about four years and depends on reactivating El Teniente.
📌 Context: Cochilco projects Chile at 4.935 million tonnes in 2026, 8.4% below 2025 and the lowest level since 2003.
My read, as someone who models economic processes:
1. The copper bottleneck isn't price. It's lower ore grades, projects that don't arrive, and numbers you can trust.
2. For a buyer or an investor, reported production is an asset. If it can't be audited, it gets discounted in the price and in the contract.
3. Bolivia is now debating its new Mining Code, with traceability in the draft. That's the moment to make production data from the state, cooperatives and private operators verifiable from day one, not after a scandal.
Crypto people will recognize the pattern: a balance nobody can verify is worth less than a smaller one you can prove.
What attracts more capital to Andean mining: bigger reserves or auditable production data?
Sources: Emol, Energiminas, Reporte Minero / La Tercera, Cochilco.
#Copper #Mining #Bolivia #LatAm