HOT CPI: DECEMBER FED RATE HIKE IS NOW A MAJOR MARKET EXPECTATION!

The latest U.S. inflation report has shaken financial markets—and investors are rapidly adjusting their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s December meeting.

October inflation came in hotter than economists expected, strengthening the case for another rate hike. But there's a bigger question now: Will the Fed raise rates by 25 basis points or consider a more aggressive 50-basis-point move?

1. THE INFLATION NUMBERS

October U.S. CPI:

1. Headline CPI: +0.4% month-over-month
2. Market expectation: +0.3%
3. Core CPI: +0.3% month-over-month
4. Market expectation: +0.2%

2. DECEMBER RATE HIKE ODDS ARE RISING

Markets are now pricing in approximately an 89% probability of a December rate hike, according to reporting on November 11.

The Federal Reserve's December 8–9 meeting is becoming a major event for global markets.

The debate is no longer simply about whether rates will rise. Investors are also watching the potential size of the move.

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