On a sea of red, the only one to stand out and shout was the project’s own founder.
$GRAM (formerly Toncoin) rose about 14% in 24 hours, and is now around 1.25 on CoinGecko—the standout performer today among the top 100-plus coins by market cap. The catalyst was straightforward: Telegram founder Pavel Durov posted that “the whole market is red, and only Gram is rising,” adding that it was severely undervalued and would make the top three on CoinMarketCap sooner or later. Add Telegram’s built-in wallet promoting it and publicly listed TON Strategy disclosing in its third-quarter report that it holds about 235 million tokens, nearly all of them staked, and sentiment caught fire in an instant.
I was a little tempted when I saw the post too, but the pitfalls I’ve hit over the past few years made me pause and think. The founder’s call for a “top three” ranking came with no timeline or price target—it’s an opinion, not a goal. The token is still more than 80% below its June 2024 high of 8.29. If I were to chase it, I’d rather see whether wallet users and on-chain transactions can sustain this surge in attention. My approach: don’t chase this spike; consider it only if it pulls back to around 1.15 and holds. If it falls below 1.1, I’ll treat the move as a brief burst of sentiment.
A quick check against this morning’s take. The morning briefing said to watch PEPE’s countertrend move but not chase it. By evening, it was down about 6% over 24 hours—good thing I didn’t get trigger-happy. XRP held the 1.05 level I was watching this morning and is now around 1.058. PIEVERSE was the weakest today, down about 19%, as some traders got out ahead of Saturday’s unlock; UNI also fell about 7%.
The broader market is still grinding sideways. $BTC is around 73938, with a 24-hour range of 72744 to 74689; $ETH is around 2054, down 11.6% over seven days—twice as bad as BTC. BTC dominance is around 60.5%, with money retreating into larger assets.
One thing that gives me a little relief: BTC spot ETFs have seen outflows for four days in a row, but the daily amounts are shrinking—from $430 million, $412 million, and $201 million to about $95 million on Tuesday, U.S. time. The bad news is that IBIT has seen redemptions for eight consecutive trading days, and Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast, now expecting rate hikes in both December and next March. The Fear and Greed Index has slipped from 32 back to 29.
Here’s what I’m watching next:
1. Initial jobless claims at 21:30 Thursday, and PPI at 21:30 Friday.
2. Options expiry at 16:00 Friday, with put contracts concentrated between 69,000 and 74,000.
3. ETF data due tomorrow morning—will we see the first day of net inflows?
4. The PIEVERSE unlock on Saturday.
I’ve thought through both scenarios. To the upside, BTC needs to reclaim 74,700 on rising volume and ETFs need to turn positive before we can call it a breather; for ETH, 2,100 is the first level to watch. To the downside, if BTC breaks below last night’s post-CPI low of 72,744, I’ll cut my position another notch. ETH would probably then test the 2,000 round-number level.
The founder himself is out there calling for a “top three” ranking. Are you treating that as bullish news to chase, or as a signal to be cautious?
These are only my personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. Markets carry risks.
$GRAM (formerly Toncoin) rose about 14% in 24 hours, and is now around 1.25 on CoinGecko—the standout performer today among the top 100-plus coins by market cap. The catalyst was straightforward: Telegram founder Pavel Durov posted that “the whole market is red, and only Gram is rising,” adding that it was severely undervalued and would make the top three on CoinMarketCap sooner or later. Add Telegram’s built-in wallet promoting it and publicly listed TON Strategy disclosing in its third-quarter report that it holds about 235 million tokens, nearly all of them staked, and sentiment caught fire in an instant.
I was a little tempted when I saw the post too, but the pitfalls I’ve hit over the past few years made me pause and think. The founder’s call for a “top three” ranking came with no timeline or price target—it’s an opinion, not a goal. The token is still more than 80% below its June 2024 high of 8.29. If I were to chase it, I’d rather see whether wallet users and on-chain transactions can sustain this surge in attention. My approach: don’t chase this spike; consider it only if it pulls back to around 1.15 and holds. If it falls below 1.1, I’ll treat the move as a brief burst of sentiment.
A quick check against this morning’s take. The morning briefing said to watch PEPE’s countertrend move but not chase it. By evening, it was down about 6% over 24 hours—good thing I didn’t get trigger-happy. XRP held the 1.05 level I was watching this morning and is now around 1.058. PIEVERSE was the weakest today, down about 19%, as some traders got out ahead of Saturday’s unlock; UNI also fell about 7%.
The broader market is still grinding sideways. $BTC is around 73938, with a 24-hour range of 72744 to 74689; $ETH is around 2054, down 11.6% over seven days—twice as bad as BTC. BTC dominance is around 60.5%, with money retreating into larger assets.
One thing that gives me a little relief: BTC spot ETFs have seen outflows for four days in a row, but the daily amounts are shrinking—from $430 million, $412 million, and $201 million to about $95 million on Tuesday, U.S. time. The bad news is that IBIT has seen redemptions for eight consecutive trading days, and Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast, now expecting rate hikes in both December and next March. The Fear and Greed Index has slipped from 32 back to 29.
Here’s what I’m watching next:
1. Initial jobless claims at 21:30 Thursday, and PPI at 21:30 Friday.
2. Options expiry at 16:00 Friday, with put contracts concentrated between 69,000 and 74,000.
3. ETF data due tomorrow morning—will we see the first day of net inflows?
4. The PIEVERSE unlock on Saturday.
I’ve thought through both scenarios. To the upside, BTC needs to reclaim 74,700 on rising volume and ETFs need to turn positive before we can call it a breather; for ETH, 2,100 is the first level to watch. To the downside, if BTC breaks below last night’s post-CPI low of 72,744, I’ll cut my position another notch. ETH would probably then test the 2,000 round-number level.
The founder himself is out there calling for a “top three” ranking. Are you treating that as bullish news to chase, or as a signal to be cautious?
These are only my personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. Markets carry risks.