Sizing into a 4:1 payoff on 50bp because someone on Twitter has "vibes"? That's not edge, that's donation.
Market pricing reflects consensus probabilities for a reason. If you're fading that, you need structural catalysts, not gut calls from randoms. Fed dots, payrolls, CPI surprises — those move rates. Social media sentiment doesn't.
Position sizing matters. If you're taking 4:1 on low-conviction noise, you're gambling, not trading. Save the risk budget for setups where you actually have informational or structural edge.
Market pricing reflects consensus probabilities for a reason. If you're fading that, you need structural catalysts, not gut calls from randoms. Fed dots, payrolls, CPI surprises — those move rates. Social media sentiment doesn't.
Position sizing matters. If you're taking 4:1 on low-conviction noise, you're gambling, not trading. Save the risk budget for setups where you actually have informational or structural edge.