Brothers, MSCI announces its list at 6 a.m. tomorrow. Saylor is very likely to get kicked out this time, and passive funds will have to sell up to $2.8 billion worth of MSTR by the end of the month.

They’re selling shares, not Bitcoin. $2.8 billion sounds scary, but Saylor himself estimates it’ll be just over $1.5 billion, which the market can absorb over the course of a month.

The real problem comes later. Saylor buys Bitcoin by raising money through stock sales, and the higher the share price, the easier it is to issue shares. If he gets kicked out and the stock takes a hit, that machine stops working—and Bitcoin’s biggest buyer may have to take a break.

The trouble is, he’s already underwater: his cost basis is $75,500, while Bitcoin is at $74,000. Without Saylor there to prop it up, the $73,000 level won’t be as solid.

Before the list is announced, Bitcoin will most likely churn between $73,000 and $75,500. If it drops, watch $72,000 first.

I’ll let you guys know as soon as the results are out tomorrow morning. #Strategy或遭MSCI剔除,面临最高28亿美元卖盘 $BTC