Everyone’s fixated on the Fed, arguing over whether December brings a 25- or 50-basis-point hike. Hardly anyone noticed the trouble started in the grain bins.
The USDA monthly report slashed U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.758 billion bushels, down from 1.849 billion. Soybean stocks came in at 300 million bushels—not only below expectations of 330 million, but even lower than the previous 315 million. The harvest fell short of expectations, and CBOT corn jumped on the spot. The heat in grain prices spread from the fields to the futures market.
Now throw October’s scorching CPI reading into the mix, and things get interesting: Waller said that if core inflation came in at 0.3% month over month, a 50-bp hike should be on the table. And the data landed right on that mark. Inflation has spread from H100 rental costs and memory chips all the way to the dinner table—and now even corn is joining the party.
$BTC is playing dead below $74,000, and analysts are back to calling for $70,000. The firmer hike expectations get, the harder liquidity gets drained from risk assets, and crypto keeps taking the hits.
My take: Tightening agricultural inventories are the next hidden landmine after CPI. Don’t rush to catch a falling knife before the FOMC decision. Position size matters more than opinions.
NFA DYOR
#CPI #美联储 #农产品 #比特币 #cryptocurrency
The USDA monthly report slashed U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.758 billion bushels, down from 1.849 billion. Soybean stocks came in at 300 million bushels—not only below expectations of 330 million, but even lower than the previous 315 million. The harvest fell short of expectations, and CBOT corn jumped on the spot. The heat in grain prices spread from the fields to the futures market.
Now throw October’s scorching CPI reading into the mix, and things get interesting: Waller said that if core inflation came in at 0.3% month over month, a 50-bp hike should be on the table. And the data landed right on that mark. Inflation has spread from H100 rental costs and memory chips all the way to the dinner table—and now even corn is joining the party.
$BTC is playing dead below $74,000, and analysts are back to calling for $70,000. The firmer hike expectations get, the harder liquidity gets drained from risk assets, and crypto keeps taking the hits.
My take: Tightening agricultural inventories are the next hidden landmine after CPI. Don’t rush to catch a falling knife before the FOMC decision. Position size matters more than opinions.
NFA DYOR
#CPI #美联储 #农产品 #比特币 #cryptocurrency