Evening review: the 200-day moving average faces its third test, and ZEC has already broken below $1,000.
At 19:00, $BTC was around $73,958, down 0.3% over 24 hours; $ETH was around $2,058, down 1.5% over 24 hours (live CoinGecko data). The 24-hour BTC range was $72,840–$74,338. ETH hit a low of $2,016.83, with the $2,000 round-number level right below.
First, an update on my short tracker #31: I opened the short on November 7 at 13:00 at $75,800–$76,100, with a $75,950 average entry. At the current price of $73,958, price is down 2.62%. On 100x leverage, the remaining half has an unrealized profit of about +262%—it was +301% at 17:00. Price has bounced a little from $73,662; honestly, that means less profit. The add-on short ($74,700–$75,000, average entry $74,850) is up about +119% (it was +159% at 17:00). The half I closed has locked in gains: +362% on the original position and +220% on the add-on. The stop at $77,500 and the invalidation level—a 4-hour close above $76,250—have not been hit.
There’s only one line worth watching tonight: can the daily candle close above the 200-day moving average? Yesterday, BTC closed at $73,700, its lowest daily close since August 20, but held the 200-day moving average (around $73,137–$73,191)—it hasn’t closed below it since August 18 (Cryptowatchdesk and Coinlab data). A close below this line tonight would be the first breakdown in nearly three months, with $71,500–$72,500 next. If it holds, the bears will have to keep grinding. Today is Veterans Day in the U.S.; bond markets are closed and there are no U.S. economic data releases (Coinlab), so trading volume will be thinner. Don’t chase moves in a narrow range. The 50-week moving average at $75,204 and Strategy’s cost basis at $75,456 are capping the rebound (Coinlab). The options market is pricing in a move of around ±$1,530 tonight (DVOL 39.6, Coinlab).
ZEC has already broken down today: it fell below $1,000 for the first time since September 5. It’s now around $987, down 13.8% in 24 hours and 24.8% over a week, and has fallen 41% from its September 26 high of $1,653 (Coinspeaker and Finnhub quotes). On Hyperliquid, ZEC plunged from $1,199 to $965 in a day. Of 32 long addresses with positions worth over $1 million, 27 are sitting on unrealized losses, totaling around $23.74 million (Huoju Capital, as cited by KuCoin). ZEC liquidations across the market topped $16.5 million over 24 hours, 88% of them longs (Seeking Alpha, as cited by TradingView). Technically, it has already fallen below the 50-day moving average at $1,200; the next level is the 200-day moving average near $880 (FXStreet). This pullback in privacy coins hasn’t been stopped by Grayscale’s ads or grants. I’m staying out and treating it only as a gauge of market sentiment.
The plan hasn’t changed: keep holding the remaining half, with $68,000 as target two. The path to $68,000: a daily close below the 200-day moving average tonight would confirm an acceleration in bearish momentum; if it holds, I still won’t flip long—just keep waiting. A rebound to $75,300–$75,500 is still my zone to add to the short. If price breaks below $71,500 and can’t reclaim it on a 4-hour close, I won’t chase the short; I’ll hold and wait for $68,000. I’ll only consider flipping long if price reclaims $78,000 and holds above it. I’m using only a very small portion of my total capital as margin for 100x leverage.
The 4-hour candle closing below $75,000 at 20:00 would make it the 16th consecutive one. Can tonight’s daily candle close above the 200-day moving average? Let’s discuss in the comments. (Prices: live CoinGecko data at 19:00 Beijing time on November 11; chart shows the past 24 hours.)
At 19:00, $BTC was around $73,958, down 0.3% over 24 hours; $ETH was around $2,058, down 1.5% over 24 hours (live CoinGecko data). The 24-hour BTC range was $72,840–$74,338. ETH hit a low of $2,016.83, with the $2,000 round-number level right below.
First, an update on my short tracker #31: I opened the short on November 7 at 13:00 at $75,800–$76,100, with a $75,950 average entry. At the current price of $73,958, price is down 2.62%. On 100x leverage, the remaining half has an unrealized profit of about +262%—it was +301% at 17:00. Price has bounced a little from $73,662; honestly, that means less profit. The add-on short ($74,700–$75,000, average entry $74,850) is up about +119% (it was +159% at 17:00). The half I closed has locked in gains: +362% on the original position and +220% on the add-on. The stop at $77,500 and the invalidation level—a 4-hour close above $76,250—have not been hit.
There’s only one line worth watching tonight: can the daily candle close above the 200-day moving average? Yesterday, BTC closed at $73,700, its lowest daily close since August 20, but held the 200-day moving average (around $73,137–$73,191)—it hasn’t closed below it since August 18 (Cryptowatchdesk and Coinlab data). A close below this line tonight would be the first breakdown in nearly three months, with $71,500–$72,500 next. If it holds, the bears will have to keep grinding. Today is Veterans Day in the U.S.; bond markets are closed and there are no U.S. economic data releases (Coinlab), so trading volume will be thinner. Don’t chase moves in a narrow range. The 50-week moving average at $75,204 and Strategy’s cost basis at $75,456 are capping the rebound (Coinlab). The options market is pricing in a move of around ±$1,530 tonight (DVOL 39.6, Coinlab).
ZEC has already broken down today: it fell below $1,000 for the first time since September 5. It’s now around $987, down 13.8% in 24 hours and 24.8% over a week, and has fallen 41% from its September 26 high of $1,653 (Coinspeaker and Finnhub quotes). On Hyperliquid, ZEC plunged from $1,199 to $965 in a day. Of 32 long addresses with positions worth over $1 million, 27 are sitting on unrealized losses, totaling around $23.74 million (Huoju Capital, as cited by KuCoin). ZEC liquidations across the market topped $16.5 million over 24 hours, 88% of them longs (Seeking Alpha, as cited by TradingView). Technically, it has already fallen below the 50-day moving average at $1,200; the next level is the 200-day moving average near $880 (FXStreet). This pullback in privacy coins hasn’t been stopped by Grayscale’s ads or grants. I’m staying out and treating it only as a gauge of market sentiment.
The plan hasn’t changed: keep holding the remaining half, with $68,000 as target two. The path to $68,000: a daily close below the 200-day moving average tonight would confirm an acceleration in bearish momentum; if it holds, I still won’t flip long—just keep waiting. A rebound to $75,300–$75,500 is still my zone to add to the short. If price breaks below $71,500 and can’t reclaim it on a 4-hour close, I won’t chase the short; I’ll hold and wait for $68,000. I’ll only consider flipping long if price reclaims $78,000 and holds above it. I’m using only a very small portion of my total capital as margin for 100x leverage.
The 4-hour candle closing below $75,000 at 20:00 would make it the 16th consecutive one. Can tonight’s daily candle close above the 200-day moving average? Let’s discuss in the comments. (Prices: live CoinGecko data at 19:00 Beijing time on November 11; chart shows the past 24 hours.)
