No major news releases are scheduled during today's livestream. Yesterday's CPI rose 0.3% month over month, above the expected 0.2%. Bitcoin (BTC) and U.S. stocks pulled back after rallying.

Existing home sales data will be released at 16:00 local time on November 12, 2026; the Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released at 14:30 local time on November 13, 2026.

Tomorrow's (November 12, 2026) livestream schedule: I may not be able to go live at the usual time. The livestream may start about 30 minutes earlier or be delayed by 1–2 hours. I may start a Discord poll; the time has not yet been determined.

Trade Recap and Observations

After the CPI data came in lower, price swept the lows on Coinbase and CME, but the USDT perpetual contract on Bybit did not clearly sweep them. I passed on the short-term long opportunity after a quick reclaim. My short, entered as price rebounded to the POC (support/resistance level), was stopped out; price then swept the highs and pulled back, but there was no clear retest.

After bouncing from the weekly support level that had been touched, price was rejected at the pwLow retest and made another local low. I took a small long position here and have taken partial profits. I still hold part of the position, which may leave me biased toward a market rebound.

My early long was stopped out during the pullback, and my position has remained unchanged since. Spot buying on Binance is still ongoing. ETF net outflows were about $95 million.

Morning outlook

Market context

Tuesday’s low is the current wLow (weekly low), but the price action remains weak. The wHigh (weekly high) structure is also poor, and both levels could be breached if a major move develops. I favor the broader $72,000 area; if there is a clear reaction, I may consider buying spot.

Yesterday’s range was about 3.6%. Its wick midpoint has been tested, and today’s dHigh (daily high) is near pdEQ (previous day’s equilibrium point). The touched daily support at wOpen (weekly open), along with the nearby POC, are the next levels to watch for a test.

Today’s dLow (daily low) is the first downside boundary. If it breaks, I expect bearish price action to move toward pdLow (previous day’s low). My base case is that price pushes toward pdEQ, then moves toward wOpen/POC and enters equilibrium. If the move starts late and pdHigh/pdLow remain intact, an inside day (range-bound trading) is likely.

Long setups

1. 73000: Positive delta is present near dLow, making this suitable only for scalping; if dLow fails, I expect pdLow to act as support.

2. 72500: After a sweep of pdLow and a reclaim, a low-conviction long may be considered. Wait patiently for the market’s response.

3. 71900: If pdLow fails, a deeper market reaction may develop near 72k; if that level breaks, price could move toward the 71k area, though I think an extreme selloff is unlikely today.

Short setups

1. 74000: Proceed with caution. The first pullback zone is near pdEQ, slightly above dHigh. Strong price action could break through this area and sweep the cluster of highs above.

2. 74500: The next key short level is near the POC, at the wick midpoint and high-volume node. Pay close attention to selling pressure when this level is tested.

3. 74800: The short zone above the wick roughly aligns with wOpen and the touched daily resistance level. If price holds above this range, I’ll abandon the countertrend short idea.

Analysis and scenarios

1. Base case: If the first short-side support level fails to hold, price will test pdEQ, then probe the POC and wOpen area. After repeated tests late in the session, price will most likely remain within yesterday’s range.

2. Pullback scenario: Price is rejected at pdEQ while dLow breaks decisively, bringing pdLow into play. If that level is not quickly reclaimed, price will move lower, opening up downside toward 71900.

3. Upside extension: If price holds above the short zone and nearby double-top resistance, the weekend high and various weak interim highs could be broken in a rally.

What to watch next

Whether price reaches pdEQ early on the way up, how sellers respond around wOpen, and whether the intraday low dLow holds decisively.

Macro outlook

The overall weekly trend remains down. The supportive reaction near 72k is encouraging, but Tuesday’s wLow needs to hold before we can consider it a solid interim low.

Practical tips

Before preparing to buy after a touch of the lows, be sure to wait for confirmation of a sweep and a response from market participants. If the market remains range-bound today, reduce your trade targets and focus on local swings.